Roman Vilfand biography. Chief Editor
Yulia Tutina,« AiF» : — Roman Mendelevich, the outgoing year, following the previous ones, was again rich in warm weather. The summer was amazing in terms of comfort. But at the same time, a considerable number of natural disasters were observed in the world. The reason for all this: global warming?
Roman Vilfand: Global warming is an unconditional fact. According to estimates that have a high probability of being correct, 2018 will be the fourth warmest year. But even more important is another fact: the last 5 years - 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 - occupy the highest ranks in the list of years with the highest average temperature. But a comfortable summer in the center of European Russia should not be associated with global climate processes. The temperature in Moscow was above 30 degrees for only 3 days, which is already considered a dangerous phenomenon, but for 50 days the temperature was in the comfortable range of 25 to 30 degrees. Very warm summers, but not hot. Precipitation fell on average about 2/3 of the norm for the season, but we did not feel this aridity, because precipitation fell a little, but constantly. Although the temperature exceeded the norm for the summer season by 2 degrees, which is a lot, there were no fires. There was no fire hazard: neither forests nor peatlands were burning. But not everywhere it was so comfortable. In Western Europe, forest fires were still burning. But at the same time there was cold and rainy weather in densely populated areas of Western Siberia, Tomsk, Novosibirsk. So it doesn't happen year after year. And it is impossible to explain every natural event - even a year long - by global warming. It is determined over much longer time periods. In science, it is common to use 30-year intervals. And now, if we consider such long-term statistics, then we can already talk about the reality of global warming. Because, for example, winter temperatures in the center of European Russia have increased by 2-2.5 degrees compared to the past 30-year period. In the northern regions of the country, warming is even more significant. On average, in our territory the temperature changes at a rate of 0.4 degrees per 10 years. Climatologists note that this is a very high figure. If the average rate of temperature change across the globe is 0.17-0.18 degrees overall, then it becomes clear that in our regions warming is happening 2.5 times faster.
— What awaits us in 2019? They say that the ocean current El Niño has awakened, which always affects the climate of the entire earth, increasing its temperature...
- Yes it's true. El Niño begins with an increase in temperature, first in the eastern waters of the Pacific Ocean, at the equator, sometimes in the central regions of the Pacific Ocean, then spreads warming to all waters of the World Ocean. And if we take into account that the equatorial latitude zone occupies a large area, then, of course, an increase in water temperature there results in increased heat transfer to the air, which affects its average global temperature. El Niño is waking up again, temperatures at the equator are already 0.5 degrees above normal. Experts from the USA and the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts predict with a high degree of probability a further increase in temperature. That is, if 2018 was a year with very high global temperatures without El Niño, then 2019 will apparently break all records. It was 2016, when El Niño was last active, that is considered the hottest in the history of meteorological observations.
— There are prominent scientists who dispute the reality of global warming caused by human industrial activity, arguing that it will definitely be followed by global cooling. How do you feel about this point of view?
- This is a completely natural question. About 20 years ago I did not have such confidence; I believed that natural processes and anthropogenic processes had approximately equal weight.
If it were possible to conduct a laboratory experiment, when in one case only natural factors were taken into account, and in the other case, an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, then we would get a clear answer: on whose side is the truth. But we live in a one-dimensional time series, we don’t have parallel worlds at hand. Therefore, the only scientific way to study is to reproduce natural phenomena using the equations of mathematical physics. So, the current situation is such that if the influence of greenhouse gases is not taken into account in the calculations, then the description of the climate becomes inadequate. And only when such a deterministic parameter is introduced, which is constantly increasing, namely the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, then the model climate and the real climate become similar to each other. For me this is a very convincing factor, but for some of my colleagues it is not. They claim that soon - in 2025, 2030 or 2050 - a period of glaciation will begin. Our planet has existed for 4.5 billion years, and everything has already happened in its history: there was also tropical heat in the North. Proof of this is the mammoth bones found in the north of Yakutia. But where else would they come from, because mammoths lived only in very warm climates. At the same time, there are traces of glaciation in the southernmost latitudes of the European territory of Russia, and even in areas close to the equator. But at the same time, paleoclimatic studies show: the rate of climate change was small, it was measured in hundreds, tens of thousands of years, millions of thousands of years. And now is a period when warming is occurring at an unprecedented rate. 0.4 degrees of increase in 10 years - this has never happened before. At the same time, the rate of increase in surface temperature is comparable precisely with the rate of increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, this is, from my point of view, unconditional evidence.
- All climatologists in the world agree on the same thing - that global warming is a reality, it is quite dangerous - then what is the reason for the US decision on a six-month moratorium on the Paris Agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions?
— The United States, although it announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, is still religiously observing the parameters that were outlined within the framework of this agreement by the previous administration. Moreover, I want to emphasize that these are voluntary obligations, that is, all states take on such bonds, because everyone understands: climate warming is, of course, a dangerous situation. Yes, there are presidential references Trump on unnamed anonymous researchers who claim that anthropogenic influence does not determine climate warming, that there are other natural factors. But the names of these scientists are not mentioned. But there are real government agencies - say, the NASA space agency, and many others - that conduct research and show that global warming is associated with an increase in the concentration, first of all, of carbon dioxide, which means the anthropogenic influence is obvious. Now there is some kind of confrontation between the US presidential administration and government agencies of this country. The situation is not easy. But we can expect that all measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions will be taken, including in the United States. Our country is also preparing to join the agreement. But we are rightly waiting for the rules related to the fulfillment of obligations to be clearly formulated - and then, I think, this agreement will also be ratified by us.
— Well, the last, most pressing question for our readers: what can we expect during the New Year holidays?
- Magic. How great it is, how in childhood you expect surprises, all sorts of incredible events, gifts Santa Claus, fulfillment of desires. It’s like this with the weather: New Year’s Eve is full of magic, so what’s the point of turning it into dry facts ( laughs)?
Lua error in Module:CategoryForProfession on line 52: attempt to index field "wikibase" (a nil value).Roman Mendelevich Vilfand(born June 13, Kyiv) - meteorologist, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Honored Meteorologist of the Russian Federation (). Director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia (since). Member of the Roshydromet board and member of the Roshydromet scientific and technical council.
Biography
Roman Mendelevich Vilfand was born on June 13, 1948 in Kyiv. In 1966, his family moved to the capital of the USSR, Moscow. In Moscow, Roman Mendelevich graduated from Moscow State University in 1971 (Department of Meteorology and Climatology at the Faculty of Geography). He remained in the graduate school of his department. Since 1985 he became an associate professor.
He worked in his specialty at the Institute of Water Problems, and in 1973 he moved to the Hydrometeorological Center of the USSR. Since 2001, he was appointed director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. Since 2006 he became a Doctor of Technical Sciences.
Family
- Married, has a daughter.
Publications
- Vilfand R. M. Anomalous synoptic processes: an integrated approach to their diagnosis and prognostic use.
- Vilfand R. M. Study of the possibilities of increasing the limit of predictability of meteorological quantities through optimal integration of multi-model ensemble forecasts of leading forecast centers.
- Vilfand R. M. Assessment of the statistical heterogeneity of climate time series based on observational data and the results of physical and mathematical modeling of past and future climate in order to identify periods of increased predictability of meteorological processes and major weather anomalies for a season - a year - several years.
- Vilfand R. M. Preparation and provision of scientific and forecasting products containing the results of hydrometeorological modeling of the state of the atmosphere.
- Vilfand R. M. Development of technologies for global and regional forecasts for up to a season. Ensuring the functioning and development of the North Eurasian Regional Climate Center.
- Vilfand R. M. Development of a strategy for hydrometeorological support of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2030.
- Bundel A. Yu., Kryzhov V. N., Min Young-Mi, Khan V. M., Vilfand R. M., Tishchenko V. A. Assessment of probability multimodel seasonal forecast based on the APCC model data.
- . Cosmo-ru system of nonhydrostatic mesoscale short-range weather forecast of the hydrometcenter of Russia: The first stage of implementation and development.
- Vil'fand R. M., Vasil'ev P. P., Vasil'eva E. L., Veselova G. K., GORLACH I. A. Medium-range forecast of air temperature and of some dangerous phenomena using the technique of the hydrometcenter of Russia.
- Vil'fand R. M., Rivin G. S., Rozinkina I. A. Mesoscale weather short-range forecasting at the Hydrometcenter of Russia, on the example of COSMO-RU.
- Khan V. M., Kryzhov V. N., Vil’fand R. M., Tishchenko V. A., Bundel" A. Yu. Y. Multimodel approach to seasonal prediction.
- Vil'fand R. M., Tishchenko V. A., Khan V. M. Statistical forecast of temperature dynamics within a month on the basis of hydrodynamic model outputs.
- Roget E., Vilfand R. M., Tishchenko V. A., Studying the development of atmospheric processes associated with blocking and quasi-stationary anticyclones in the Atlantic European sector.
Conferences
He is the organizer of a number of conferences, among them:
- International conference on problems of hydrometeorological safety (Moscow, September 26-29, 2006);
- First International Scientific and Practical Conference “Use of hydrometeorological information for the needs of the energy industry of the Russian Federation” (Moscow, April 21-22, 2009);
- Scientific conference "175 years of the Hydrometeorological Service of Russia - scientific problems and ways to solve them."
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To be honest, I didn’t have too much desire, since I wasn’t sure what to expect from this “show.” But in order not to offend the generous Stella, she agreed.– I won’t show you for a long time. I promise! But you should know about them, right?.. – the girl said in a happy voice. - Look, the son will be first...
To my greatest surprise, unlike what I had seen before, we found ourselves in a completely different time and place, which was similar to France, and the clothes were reminiscent of the eighteenth century. A beautiful covered carriage was driving along a wide cobbled street, inside of which were sitting a young man and a woman in very expensive suits, and apparently in a very bad mood... The young man stubbornly proved something to the girl, and she, not listening to him at all, hovered calmly somewhere in her dreams, which really irritated the young man...
- You see, it’s him! This is the same “little boy”... only after many, many years,” Stella whispered quietly.
- How do you know that it’s really him? – still not quite understanding, I asked.
- Well, of course, it’s very simple! – the little girl stared at me in surprise. – We all have an essence, and the essence has its own “key” by which each of us can be found, you just need to know how to look. Here look...
She showed me the baby again, Harold's son.
– Think about his essence, and you will see...
And I immediately saw a transparent, brightly glowing, surprisingly powerful entity, on whose chest an unusual “diamond” energy star was burning. This “star” shone and shimmered with all the colors of the rainbow, now decreasing, now increasing, as if slowly pulsating, and sparkled so brightly, as if it had really been created from the most stunning diamonds.
– Do you see this strange inverted star on his chest? - This is his “key”. And if you try to follow him, like a thread, then it will lead you straight to Axel, who has the same star - this is the same essence, only in its next incarnation.
I looked at her with all my eyes, and apparently noticing this, Stella laughed and cheerfully admitted:
– Don’t think that it was me myself – it was my grandmother who taught me!..
I was very ashamed to feel like a complete incompetent, but the desire to know more was a hundred times stronger than any shame, so I hid my pride as deeply as possible and carefully asked:
– But what about all these amazing “realities” that we are seeing here now? After all, this is someone else’s, specific life, and you don’t create them in the same way as you create all your worlds?
- Oh no! – the little girl was again glad to have the opportunity to explain something to me. - Of course not! This is just the past in which all these people once lived, and I’m just taking you and me there.
- And Harold? How does he see all this?
- Oh, it’s easy for him! He’s just like me, dead, so he can move wherever he wants. After all, he no longer has a physical body, so his essence does not know any obstacles here and can walk wherever it wants... just like me... - the little girl finished more sadly.
I sadly thought that what was for her just a “simple transfer into the past”, for me, apparently for a long time will be a “mystery behind seven locks”... But Stella, as if hearing my thoughts, immediately hurried to reassure me :
- You'll see, it's very simple! You just have to try.
– And these “keys”, are they never repeated by others? – I decided to continue my questions.
“No, but sometimes something else happens...” for some reason, the little one answered, smiling funny. “That’s exactly how I got caught at the beginning, for which they even beat me up very badly... Oh, that was so stupid!..”
- But as? – I asked, very interested.
Stella immediately answered cheerfully:
- Oh, that was very funny! - and after thinking a little, she added, “but it’s also dangerous... I was looking on all the “floors” for the past incarnation of my grandmother, and instead of her, a completely different entity came along her “thread”, which somehow managed to “copy” my grandmother’s “ flower" (apparently also a "key"!) and, just as I had time to rejoice that I had finally found it, this unfamiliar entity mercilessly hit me in the chest. Yes, so much that my soul almost flew away!..
- How did you get rid of her? – I was surprised.
“Well, to be honest, I didn’t get rid of it...” the girl was embarrassed. - I just called my grandmother...
– What do you call “floors”? – I still couldn’t calm down.
– Well, these are different “worlds” where the essences of the dead live... In the most beautiful and highest live those who were good... and, probably, the strongest too.
- People like you? – I asked, smiling.
- Oh, no, of course! I probably got here by mistake. – The girl said completely sincerely. – Do you know what’s most interesting? From this “floor” we can walk everywhere, but from the others no one can get here... Isn’t that interesting?..
Envy prompted us to turn again to the newspaper’s regular author, the director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, Roman VILFAND. Why do Americans have such a “weather-animal” holiday, but not Russia? This claim was addressed to the chief weather forecaster of Russia by Izvestia columnist Boris PASTERNAK.
- Roman Mendelevich, do we have anything similar to Groundhog Day in Russia?
Ha, yes, every day is like Groundhog Day! There are folk signs on every page of the calendar, and sometimes several.
- And they contradict each other?
Not without it.
- “If there is sun at noon on Efimiya, it means early spring. If there is a snowstorm, there will be revenge throughout Shrovetide.” This is one pair of signs. There is another one. “If there is sun at noon on Efimiya, it means a rainy summer. If there is wind, it means a wet year.”
- What if we move forward a week?
For example, February 6, “on Aksinya”. “If mice crawl out from under the snow, there will be a thaw in the coming days.” This, it seems, is not very relevant for Moscow and St. Petersburg... “Like Aksinya, so is spring.”
- Dates according to the old style or the new?
The dates have already been converted to the modern calendar. February 10. “If the wind blows on Ephraim, the summer will be cold.”
- The eternal question: are any regularities confirmed by your science?
In temperate latitudes there is no periodicity in the weather; it is impossible to predict it from signs. For example, if the winter was cold for two years in a row, then in the third year... In the third year it may be cold again, or maybe warm. No simple extrapolation works. By the way, this is largely why interest in omens is so great - and not decreasing. If the weather came on schedule, like sunrise or sunset, no one would be interested in what we have on Ephraim or Aksinya.
- Is “people's memory” really so imperfect that it does not notice the obvious discrepancies between signs and reality?
Another science deals with this - psychology. A person willingly remembers only those predictions that came true. Those that did not come true routinely pass by consciousness. Twenty years ago there was red viburnum - and it was a frosty winter. And when the winter was warm, they somehow didn’t pay attention to the viburnum... But it was, perhaps, even redder.
- Fine. Would you like to play the role of a groundhog yourself? Your forecast for the season.
Not ready to say until winter is over. Around March 20, we will analyze what the average circulation of the polar vortex was, what was the phase of the two-year cycle in the lower equatorial stratosphere, what were the displacements of the centers of the Azores and Aleutian anticyclones... Only after we have calculated all this and much more, we We will be able to give a forecast for the spring and summer periods, from April to September - naturally, with a probability not exceeding 70-80 percent.
- Do you know if the Americans’ “marmot forecast” is confirmed?
Of course, it is confirmed - at the level of random guessing. This does not in the least prevent them from having a fun holiday on February 2nd.
USSR → Russia, RussiaRoman Mendelevich Vilfand(born June 13, Kyiv) - meteorologist, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Honored Meteorologist of the Russian Federation (). Director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia (since). Member of the Roshydromet board and member of the Roshydromet scientific and technical council.
Biography
Roman Mendelevich Vilfand was born on June 13, 1948 in Kyiv. In 1966, his family moved to the capital of the USSR, Moscow. In Moscow, Roman Mendelevich graduated from Moscow State University in 1971 (Department of Meteorology and Climatology at the Faculty of Geography). He remained in the graduate school of his department. Since 1985 he became an associate professor.
He worked in his specialty at the Institute of Water Problems, and in 1973 he moved to the Hydrometeorological Center of the USSR. Since 2001, he was appointed director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. Since 2006 he became a Doctor of Technical Sciences.
Family
- Married, has a daughter.
Publications
- Vilfand R. M. Anomalous synoptic processes: an integrated approach to their diagnosis and prognostic use.
- Vilfand R. M. Study of the possibilities of increasing the limit of predictability of meteorological quantities through optimal integration of multi-model ensemble forecasts of leading forecast centers.
- Vilfand R. M. Assessment of the statistical heterogeneity of climate time series based on observational data and the results of physical and mathematical modeling of past and future climate in order to identify periods of increased predictability of meteorological processes and major weather anomalies for a season - a year - several years.
- Vilfand R. M. Preparation and provision of scientific and forecasting products containing the results of hydrometeorological modeling of the state of the atmosphere.
- Vilfand R. M. Development of technologies for global and regional forecasts for up to a season. Ensuring the functioning and development of the North Eurasian Regional Climate Center.
- Vilfand R. M. Development of a strategy for hydrometeorological support of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2030.
- Bundel A. Yu., Kryzhov V. N., Min Young-Mi, Khan V. M., Vilfand R. M., Tishchenko V. A. Assessment of probability multimodel seasonal forecast based on the APCC model data.
- . Cosmo-ru system of nonhydrostatic mesoscale short-range weather forecast of the hydrometcenter of Russia: The first stage of implementation and development.
- Vil'fand R. M., Vasil'ev P. P., Vasil'eva E. L., Veselova G. K., GORLACH I. A. Medium-range forecast of air temperature and of some dangerous phenomena using the technique of the hydrometcenter of Russia.
- Vil'fand R. M., Rivin G. S., Rozinkina I. A. Mesoscale weather short-range forecasting at the Hydrometcenter of Russia, on the example of COSMO-RU.
- Khan V. M., Kryzhov V. N., Vil’fand R. M., Tishchenko V. A., Bundel" A. Yu. Y. Multimodel approach to seasonal prediction.
- Vil'fand R. M., Tishchenko V. A., Khan V. M. Statistical forecast of temperature dynamics within a month on the basis of hydrodynamic model outputs.
- Roget E., Vilfand R. M., Tishchenko V. A., Studying the development of atmospheric processes associated with blocking and quasi-stationary anticyclones in the Atlantic European sector.
Conferences
He is the organizer of a number of conferences, among them:
- International conference on problems of hydrometeorological safety (Moscow, September 26-29, 2006);
- First International Scientific and Practical Conference “Use of hydrometeorological information for the needs of the energy industry of the Russian Federation” (Moscow, April 21-22, 2009);
- Scientific conference "175 years of the Hydrometeorological Service of Russia - scientific problems and ways to solve them."
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An excerpt characterizing Vilfand, Roman Mendelevich
“Well, that’s enough for you,” said the auditor with a beaming, naive and at the same time sly smile, as if he was flattered that he was the subject of Zherkov’s jokes, and as if he was deliberately trying to seem stupider than he really was.“Tres drole, mon monsieur prince, [Very funny, my lord prince," said the officer on duty. (He remembered that in French they specifically say the title prince, and could not get it right.)
At this time they were all already approaching the Tushin battery, and a cannonball hit in front of them.
- Why did it fall? – the auditor asked, smiling naively.
“French flatbreads,” said Zherkov.
- This is what they hit you with, then? – asked the auditor. - What passion!
And he seemed to be blooming with pleasure. He had barely finished speaking when an unexpectedly terrible whistle was heard again, which suddenly stopped with a blow to something liquid, and sh sh sh slap - the Cossack, riding somewhat to the right and behind the auditor, collapsed with his horse to the ground. Zherkov and the duty officer bent down in their saddles and turned their horses away. The auditor stopped in front of the Cossack, examining him with attentive curiosity. The Cossack was dead, the horse was still struggling.
Prince Bagration, squinting, looked around and, seeing the cause of the confusion, turned away indifferently, as if saying: is it worth engaging in nonsense! He stopped his horse with the manner of a good rider, leaned over a little and straightened the sword that had caught on his cloak. The sword was old, not like the ones they used now. Prince Andrei remembered the story of how Suvorov in Italy presented his sword to Bagration, and at that moment this memory was especially pleasant to him. They drove up to the very battery where Bolkonsky stood when he was looking at the battlefield.
-Whose company? – Prince Bagration asked the fireworksman standing by the boxes.
He asked: whose company? but in essence he asked: aren’t you shy here? And the fireworksman understood this.
“Captain Tushin, your Excellency,” the red-haired fireworksman, with a freckled face covered in freckles, shouted, stretching out in a cheerful voice.
“Well, well,” Bagration said, thinking something, and drove past the limbers to the outermost gun.
While he was approaching, a shot rang out from this gun, deafening him and his retinue, and in the smoke that suddenly surrounded the gun, the artillerymen were visible, picking up the gun and, hastily straining, rolling it to its original place. The broad-shouldered, huge soldier 1st with a banner, legs spread wide, jumped towards the wheel. The 2nd, with a shaking hand, put the charge into the barrel. A small, stooped man, Officer Tushin, tripped over his trunk and ran forward, not noticing the general and looking out from under his small hand.
“Add two more lines, it will be just like that,” he shouted in a thin voice, to which he tried to give a youthful appearance that did not suit his figure. - Second! - he squeaked. - Smash it, Medvedev!
Bagration called out to the officer, and Tushin, with a timid and awkward movement, not at all in the way the military salutes, but in the way the priests bless, placing three fingers on the visor, approached the general. Although Tushin’s guns were intended to bombard the ravine, he fired with fire guns at the village of Shengraben, visible ahead, in front of which large masses of the French were advancing.
No one ordered Tushin where or with what to shoot, and he, after consulting with his sergeant major Zakharchenko, for whom he had great respect, decided that it would be good to set the village on fire. "Fine!" Bagration said to the officer’s report and began to look around the entire battlefield opening before him, as if thinking something. On the right side the French came closest. Below the height at which the Kiev regiment stood, in the ravine of the river, the soul-grabbing rolling chatter of guns was heard, and much to the right, behind the dragoons, a retinue officer pointed out to the prince the French column encircling our flank. To the left, the horizon was limited to a nearby forest. Prince Bagration ordered two battalions from the center to go to the right for reinforcements. The retinue officer dared to notice to the prince that after these battalions left, the guns would be left without cover. Prince Bagration turned to the retinue officer and looked at him silently with dull eyes. It seemed to Prince Andrei that the retinue officer’s remark was fair and that there was really nothing to say. But at that time an adjutant from the regimental commander, who was in the ravine, rode up with the news that huge masses of French were coming down, that the regiment was upset and was retreating to the Kyiv grenadiers. Prince Bagration bowed his head as a sign of agreement and approval. He walked to the right and sent an adjutant to the dragoons with orders to attack the French. But the adjutant sent there arrived half an hour later with the news that the dragoon regimental commander had already retreated beyond the ravine, for strong fire was directed against him, and he was losing people in vain and therefore hurried the riflemen into the forest.