Modular boiler rooms as an alternative to repairing networks. V.A
At the “Russian Energy Week” (REW-2017), they discussed the progress of events within the preparatory stage of the reform of the heat supply system, which provides for the transition from state regulation of tariffs to long-term contract prices for thermal energy. Now the reform needs full legislative support. I understood what it can give to the industry and people +1.
Photo: Alexander Elshevsky | ASI Press Service
The essence of the reform
Changes to the Federal Law “On Heat Supply” imply a complete transformation of the market. Current regulations do not guarantee investors the opportunity to invest their funds in the tariff and recoup them within the planned time frame. Because of this, networks wear out, infrastructure deteriorates, and the industry does not make a profit and does not operate as a business. It is expected that the “alternative boiler house” will attract 2.5 trillion rubles of investment in heat supply. The reform will increase GDP by 600 billion rubles and create 35 thousand new jobs.
It is expected that the “alternative boiler house” will attract 2.5 trillion rubles of investment in heat supply
The operation of old networks is associated with accidents and interruptions in heat, with debts from the supplier to the resource supplying organization. Investors will not only take on the role of a “repairman,” but now prices will be able to be regulated predictably. The business will take a customer-oriented position and will be interested in increasing its own efficiency.
All tariffs of heat sellers and network companies are now regulated by the state. With the new model everything will be different. The tariff will be determined by agreement of the parties on the maximum level of heat price for the end consumer - that is, the cost of a gigacalorie at which he will be able to abandon the central heating supply and switch to another boiler house.
Price zones will appear, within which the ETO (single heat supply organization) will be responsible for tariffs. This does not mean that prices will decrease, but they will be transparently regulated, and funds will be spent on specific actions - modernizing heating networks and ensuring operational stability. Simply put, you will need to pay either for the construction of a new heat source or for the modernization of an old one. Every citizen will be able to calculate the tariff for an “alternative boiler room”, and businesses will feel the return on their investments and will be able to recoup them.
Whether heat will become more expensive is a big question. The Ministry of Energy promises that there will be no sharp jump, but the final result will be determined by the characteristics of specific regions and the volume of investment in each of them. As Deputy Minister of Energy Vyacheslav Kravchenko noted, 20% of consumers will not feel the difference at all, 40% will be affected by inflation and growth will be 1-2%, and only 3-4% will receive an increase of more than 10%. It is assumed that the greatest increase in tariffs will be recorded in the first years after modernization, after which it will decrease.
The Ministry of Energy promises that there will be no sharp jump in heat prices as a result of the reform.
The state will not completely withdraw from the new scheme: it will approve the rules for connecting to heat supply systems and determine the maximum price level for heat.
We are waiting for the law
The transition to an “alternative boiler house” is voluntary for each region. However, even during the discussion of the law, more than fifty federal subjects supported it. The final package of documents is now being prepared, which will regulate a clear scheme for the transition to the new system.
“The first block is a package of documents that will regulate the regulatory framework for calculating the price of an “alternative boiler house”. And the second block of documents will regulate the activities of a single heat supply organization in the heat supply market. (...) The third block regulates the activities of the authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities in approving the very same heat price levels and agreements that should arise between a single heat supply organization and local governments,” explained Deputy General Director of T Plus PJSC Roman Nizhankovsky .
The final provisions will help local authorities calculate the cost of switching to the new model. Clear legislative regulation will make it possible to rationally build relationships between subjects, ETO, local authorities and businesses that will modernize heating networks.
Implementation example
Taking into account the principle of voluntariness inherent in the reform, a pilot project to switch to an “alternative boiler house” was not envisaged. But it still appeared. It became the city of Rubtsovsk, Altai Territory.
Officials believe that his experience can be extended to other problematic small towns and regions. The decision to implement the reform may contribute to the influx of investment.
Due to wear and tear on equipment and a lack of fuel and resources, Rubtsovsk was at risk of freezing in 2016. There was literally nothing to heat the houses with. “In the morning we were thinking about where to get coal, and in the evening – where to get money for coal,” said the head of the city administration, Dmitry Feldman, at REW-2017.
The city, finding itself in an emergency situation, decided to transfer consumers to the capacity of the Southern Thermal Station. At the same time, the city authorities decided to close the Rubtsovskaya CHPP, since it was very outdated. This will be done only after combining the network circuits of the two stations, for which it is necessary to build 6.3 kilometers of pipelines. About 16 more kilometers of networks will be replaced with pipes of larger diameter, and the capacity of the UTS will be increased.
The project is being implemented by the Siberian Generating Company (SGK) - it is investing about 1.7 billion rubles in modernization. The city entered into a concession agreement with SGK for 15 years - during this time the company’s investments should pay off. The implementation period is 2017-2018. After completion of the work, residents will receive uninterrupted heat.
Doctor of Technical Sciences V.A. Stennikov, professor,
Institute of Energy Systems named after. L.A. Melentyev SB RAS, Irkutsk
(published in order of discussion)
Legislative initiatives for heat supply reform
The problem of transforming heat supply and turning it into an effective sector of the country's economy at different stages of its development had its own characteristics and was in the field of view of all levels of management. Intentions to improve the situation in the country's heat supply were made repeatedly, but turned out to be unfulfilled because they were not fully supported by organizational measures, material, technical and financial resources.
The main directions for reforming the heat supply of Russia at the present stage in accordance with the strategic guidelines for the development of the country's economy were proposed in the document adopted for implementation in 2010. In subsequent years, these directions were implemented within the framework of the Federal and regional laws “On energy saving and increasing energy efficiency”, in a number of regulatory and methodological documents, in the heat supply schemes being developed for cities and settlements. The adoption of the law “On Heat Supply” made it possible to legislate heat supply as a sector of the country’s economy, which is an organic part of the country’s fuel and energy complex, along with the gas, oil, coal, electric power and nuclear energy industries.
With the release of the Law “On Heat Supply,” people began to pay more attention to heat supply not only as a problematic industry, but also as a promising area of economic activity. The past years have made certain adjustments to the development of heat supply and required certain changes to be made to the adopted law. The need and content of these changes are discussed in various publications, including the draft Energy Strategy of Russia for the period until 2035.
The Ministry of Energy of Russia (ME RF) proposed its vision of these changes, which, according to specialists of the RF ME, will make it possible to successfully reform the heat supply. They are based on the concept of setting tariffs for thermal energy on the basis of the indicative price calculated by the Federal Tariff Service (FTS) for an alternative boiler house (AK) and the creation of a unified heat supply organization (ETO). It is proposed that by 2020 tariffs for thermal energy will be brought to the level of the cost of supplying heat from some technologically advanced alternative boiler house. ETO according to the concept (AK + ETO) are organized, as a rule, on the basis of large generating companies (TGK and OGK) and include heat sources and heating networks. This concept, for obvious reasons, is certainly supported by large generating companies. At the same time, it also has many opponents.
The proposed innovations are aimed, first of all, at increasing (1.5-2 times) tariffs for thermal energy to the level of the cost of its production of some virtual newly created “alternative boiler house” and vesting large generating companies organizing ETO with undivided powers to manage the functioning and development of heat supply systems of cities and settlements. This decision seems excessive, especially since it is proposed to gradually abolish tariff regulation, and in the UTS, among the decision makers there are no representatives of consumers, primarily the population, as a balancing factor. All this together can lead to negative consequences not only for consumers, but also for the energy supply organizations themselves. Having the right to exist, these proposals have nothing to do with solving long-standing problems in heat supply, such as streamlining organizational management, increasing the efficiency of heat supply, stimulating cost reduction, harmonizing electricity and heat markets and others. For these reasons and those set out below, their inclusion in the law seems unacceptable.
Analysis of proposals from the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation
The changes proposed in the draft law prepared by the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation are aimed primarily at supporting large companies and strengthening their monopoly; they deprive the heat supply of a competitive basis and incentives to improve its efficiency. This is confirmed by the analysis of these changes below.
1. A systemic problem characteristic of many current initiatives, including in heat supply, is incorrect goal setting. In particular, the proposed concept is aimed not at the consumer, for whose sake everything should be done, but at improving the situation of heat supply companies and a certain heat market they are forming, in which the participation of consumers (not to mention their equal presence) is not provided. The purpose of this concept is to ensure the sustainable functioning and development of the industry according to the formula: development of the heat supply industry (and even a large centralized part of it) for the sake of the heat supply industry itself. At the same time, the goal of heat supply reform should be to ensure an effective supply of thermal energy to consumers at an affordable cost, i.e. ensuring demand, quality, reliability and availability of thermal energy while reducing the costs of its supply. The interests of consumers should be a key objective of the reform, which is not in the concept.
2. Today, the country’s economy is focused on the formation of competitive market relations, at the same time, it is proposed to carry out heat supply reform using the same administrative methods, such as the state introduction of a rate increase for heat energy tariffs and the creation of a monopoly operating structure in the form of ETO. This contradicts the country's strategic guidelines.
3. The proposed tariff for an “alternative boiler house” is nothing more than a deteriorated physical method of dividing the costs of electrical and thermal energy; this is some kind of abstract concept of a virtual nature. Moreover, it is additionally loaded with an investment component, which is absolutely not justified for existing systems. At the same time, the return to an analogue of the physical method is a passed stage, which led to the departure of consumers from centralized heat supply systems and a decrease in their competitiveness.
4. An increase in the tariff to the level of an “alternative boiler house”, for which there is no basis, contradicts the main strategic direction of development of heat supply - district heating, since it leads to a decrease in its competitiveness relative to other types of heat supply, outflow of consumers and stagnation.
5. It is assumed that an increase in tariffs to the level of the cost of heat production at an alternative boiler house will ensure widespread attraction of investments for the modernization of heat supply facilities, and will also help
to ensure their sustainable functioning and development. At the same time, as practice shows, this simple mechanism only discourages energy supply companies and leads to even greater inaction.
6. The unreasonable increase in tariffs and the created monopoly structure for heat supply management do not stimulate entrepreneurial initiative and competition for consumers, which would help reduce costs and increase production efficiency.
7. The main obstacle to the influx of investment into the industry is not low tariffs, as stated, but our mentality about the lack of prestige of the heat supply sector, as noted above, the uncertainty of economic, legal, and technical policies, the opacity of financial flows, the tariff setting process, inappropriate use of funds, practically complete secrecy of production and financial indicators of energy companies, etc. For example, this year alone the Government changed its tariff policy three times. It was these and some other factors that led to the loss of investor confidence, and not the existing tariff levels.
8. Market mechanisms for attracting investments are not considered or proposed in the concept under consideration. Energy supply companies, however, like all large companies in our country, do not risk anything in their activities, for example, like small businesses, therefore they do not show business activity, and all risks are transferred to the consumer.
9. The concept proposes to form the ETO on the basis of generating companies with the inclusion of heating networks and heat sources of these companies in its composition. At the same time, the ETO is given all the powers to manage the operation and development of heat supply systems in cities. The introduction of a monopoly ETO structure in this form eliminates state authorities and local governments from managing heat supply, a very important and socially tense area that largely determines the energy security of Russia. The main social function of the state is completely transferred to private companies.
10. The heat supply industry is declared unregulated; all responsibility for heat supply is assigned to the ETO, which fundamentally cannot be public, open and transparent. At the same time, she will dictate her terms of service in the territory entrusted to her. In essence, the ETO is endowed with unlimited rights without any responsibilities: it determines producer prices; sets price limits; concludes agreements on
prices determined in accordance with the rules established by the ETO; develops heat supply schemes; distributes loads between heat sources, etc.
11. The transfer of all functions of a heat energy supplier to a single participant in the ETO market is contrary to the fundamental principles of a competitive market. For example, prices for thermal energy supplied by ETO to consumers are determined unilaterally by ETO itself. This is generally something new in a market economy - not by agreement of the parties, but unilaterally.
12. Modern electricity and heat markets are deeply integrated both energetically and technically; they are economically interconnected, like two communicating vessels. The main source of these markets - thermal power plants - is of great importance. More than 32% of electricity and more than 30% of heat are generated at thermal power plants. These markets must be objectively considered together; they cannot be separated, as is presented in the concept. This is confirmed by the unilateral reform of the electric power industry, which largely caused negative trends not only in this industry, but also in heat supply and, above all, in relation to thermal power plants.
13. It is proposed to change the status of the Heat Supply Scheme to analytical and information functions. This indicates a complete misunderstanding of the purpose of this document, its composition and importance. The scheme is a program document, a feasibility study of those solutions that are proposed to meet the future demand of consumers, increase the efficiency of heat supply, etc.; This is publicity, this is a conductor of state policy in heat supply. It determines investment needs and is the basis for attracting extra-budgetary sources of financing for activities.
14. The customer of the Scheme must be municipal authorities. It cannot be the prerogative of the ETO, since it must be an independent document, must reflect strategic state guidelines in heat supply, must cover heat supply throughout the municipality, and take into account the interests of all participants in the heat market. Removing state authorities and local self-government from this process seems inappropriate.
The presented analysis of the Amendments proposed by the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation for inclusion in the Law “On Heat Supply” shows that their main provisions are in conflict with the development of a market economy in the country, they are not consistent with strategic guidelines for the priority development of district heating (cogeneration), and lead to inaction of heat supply organizations , the removal of government authorities from the process of managing the most socially tense sector of the economy, a significant increase in the financial burden on the budget and the population, a collapse in non-payments and further degradation of heat supply.
Possible consequences
The inclusion in the federal law of the proposed conceptual provisions for heat supply reform will lead to a number of negative consequences, among which the following can be highlighted:
1. A significant unjustified increase in tariffs will lead to further withdrawal of consumers from centralized heat supply systems. Excess capacity will increase, and the costs of maintaining it will additionally fall on the remaining consumers. The ineffective process of “boiler roomization” of the country will continue.
2. An even more serious trend is emerging, according to which large industrial enterprises, including due to high energy tariffs, will and are already transferring their production capacities abroad. This will worsen the situation not only in the energy sector, but also in the Russian economy as a whole.
3. The shift of consumers to their own heat sources will lead to a reduction in heat load and a reduction in electricity production using the most economical combined cycle at thermal power plants and a further decline in their competitiveness in the wholesale electricity and capacity market.
4. Unilateral consideration of the heat market without coordination with the electricity market does not solve the main problems of a discriminatory nature regarding the participation of thermal power plants in the electricity market. Redistributing costs towards thermal energy will temporarily improve the situation of thermal power plants in the electricity market, but will not essentially change it. The inconsistency of these markets will increase, reducing the effectiveness of the participation of thermal power plants in the production of electrical energy and displacing them from this market, turning them into boiler houses.
5. The situation will worsen in systems that have a tariff higher than the established indicative price. This category will, as a rule, include municipal boiler houses operating in remote areas. In accordance with the concept, they should either be closed or modernized. Being social objects, they often do not have sufficient financial resources for their technical refurbishment.
weapons, and will have to close, and consumers will be left to survive.
6. Due to the uncontrollability and lack of a competitive market, the costs of production and transportation of thermal energy will increase significantly, which will contribute to the next round of tariff growth.
7. Exorbitantly increased payments for thermal energy will entail an increase in the expenditure of funds from the budget and the population on heat supply, will be accompanied by the inability to pay for thermal energy at the increased cost, will lead to an increase in the volume of non-payments, and will contribute to a decrease in the competitiveness of centralized heating supply and its degradation.
8. The ETO monopoly will not allow independent producers of thermal energy to develop and will lead to the curtailment of their activities.
9. Change in the functional purpose of Heat Supply Schemes, lack of their public openness, etc. will lead to a decrease in the significance of this document, a discrepancy between the development of heat supply systems and urban development plans and, in general, an imbalance in the infrastructure of cities and settlements, which has clearly manifested itself in the past decades, when their development was stopped.
These are not all the possible consequences of the proposed innovations, which will ultimately lead to a further deterioration of the situation in the heat supply and its collapse. Heat supply reform must begin with a change in goal setting and the mentality about the inefficiency of heat supply that has developed over decades.
Heat supply reform targets
Over the past years, a fairly large range of issues have accumulated that must be resolved in the process of reforming the heat supply. At the same time, reforming the country’s heat supply should be focused on achieving the following most important targets:
■ increasing the level of comfort in residential, public and industrial premises, providing the population and sectors of the country’s economy with a developed range of heat supply services at an affordable cost;
■ cardinal increase in the technical level of systems based on innovative, energy-efficient technologies and equipment;
■ reduction of unproductive heat losses and fuel consumption;
■ ensuring controllability, reliability and efficiency of heat supply;
■ reducing the negative impact on the environment;
■ ensuring economic accessibility of heat supply services for consumers.
The criterion for reforms should be the positive dynamics of the following indicators: 1 - the cost of thermal energy should fall; 2 - the availability of thermal energy should increase; 3 - the reliability and quality of heat supply must increase. All targets of the heat supply reform, like all infrastructure sectors, should be aimed at the consumer. There is no consumer, there is no future for such an industry.
Achieving the listed strategic goals for heat supply development can be achieved by solving a set of priority tasks:
Organizational:
■ eliminating departmental disunity (Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Regional Development, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, power generating and industrial companies, municipalities, etc.) and uncoordinated actions taken at various levels of government;
■ increasing the role and responsibility of regional bodies and local governments for heat supply;
■ creation of a competitive heat energy market with full participation of consumers as a player in this market.
Institutional:
■ development of the entire package of documents provided for by the Federal Law “On Heat Supply”, introducing the necessary amendments to it;
■ formation of motivations (including administrative, legislative) among energy supply companies (WGCs, TGCs, etc.) responsible for heat supply (primarily cogeneration) in the development of this industry, overcoming the mentality of specialists and managers regarding a negative attitude towards heat supply ;
■ significant increase in the level of management of heat supply and energy supply organizations, providing them with qualified, conscientious personnel.
Production and technical:
■ significantly increase the level of maintenance and operation of systems;
■ ensure timely and high-quality execution of repair work, as well as modernization and renewal of equipment;
■ technical re-equipment and technological modernization of systems;
■ optimize the operational process of managing production, transport and distribution of thermal energy.
Many of the listed areas are quite obvious and do not require significant investments, while, as practice shows,
in most cases there are also possibilities for their implementation. The result of activities to solve the above problems should be:
■ consistent reduction of costs for the supply of thermal energy to consumers by no less than 15-20%;
■ increasing heat supply from thermal power plants by 1.5-2.0 times by returning former consumers and attracting new ones;
■ increasing the share of electricity generated from thermal consumption from 28% to 45-50%;
■ increase in the share of heat generated in district heating mode from 48% to 65%;
■ increasing the utilization factor of the installed capacity of the thermal power plant from 67% to 80% (design indicator);
■ increasing the fuel heat efficiency factor from 52% to 90%, as in European countries;
■ reducing the number of boiler houses, primarily those operating on natural gas, by 2 times;
■ reduction of cash costs, first of all, of the population and budgets of various levels for payment of thermal energy by 1.5 times.
The indicative indicators are quite high, but they are achievable, as the experience of European countries, not to mention the Scandinavian countries, shows.
Proposed directions for reforming heat supply
Heat supply reform is multidimensional in nature and should be carried out in several directions.
1. A hierarchically ordered system of state and municipal, as well as corporate heat supply management must be created with an appropriate division of functions and responsibilities between state authorities, local self-government and business for this most important social sphere, activity in which is partially (heat energy transfer) monopoly.
2. It is necessary to establish and legislate the following provisions at the highest state level:
■ heat supply (centralized and decentralized, municipal and industrial), as a branch of the national economy (economy), is an integral part of the diversified fuel and energy complex (FEC);
■ the federal executive body authorized to implement legal regulation and state policy in the field of heat supply (within the framework of state energy policy as a whole) is the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, with certain functions (as in relation to other sectors of the fuel and energy complex) assigned by law to the Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Regional Development, Ministry of Construction - Housing and Communal Services, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Agriculture, FST, FAS, Rostechnadzor.
3. Due to the intersection of interests of the heat supply and electric power industries, it is necessary to achieve coordination of the interests of the electric and thermal energy markets. For this purpose, it is necessary to form full-fledged retail markets for heat and electricity with the introduction of all thermal power plants, boiler houses and other heat sources, as well as heat and distribution electricity networks with the preparation and adoption of relevant regulations.
4. Form a two-level hierarchical structure of energy markets: a wholesale (balancing) electric market and retail markets (electric and heat) with a corresponding division of energy assets according to the scope of their operation. This will eliminate the existing inconsistency in the electric and heat markets, ensure the competitive participation of thermal power plants in the retail heat and electric energy markets, and supply only excess electricity (power) to the wholesale electric energy (power) market on a competitive basis.
5. The organization of retail markets will eliminate the existing imbalances in determining electricity tariffs for the population and the social sphere, when they include the costs of maintaining high-voltage power lines not participating in the power supply to urban consumers. CHP and other sources will be as close as possible to the consumer. In the future, this fits well into the organizational management structure represented by a single energy supply organization. This scheme is already beginning to be implemented in European countries, when urban systems of electricity, heat, gas, water supply and sanitation are integrated into a single energy infrastructure with network-centric control. Such organization of urban engineering infrastructure is becoming increasingly relevant in connection with the development of processes of intellectualization and informatization of engineering systems.
6. The attention and regulation of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation should include not only the wholesale, but also the retail electricity and heat markets, to which all combined heat and power plants and cogeneration plants should be located, regardless of their capacity and ownership. It should be established that electricity can be supplied to the wholesale electricity market and compete there only to the extent that it is excessive for the area of responsibility (for power supply) of a given thermal power plant.
7. ETOs should only engage in naturally monopolistic areas of activity, i.e. transport of thermal energy, combining heat networks. The production of thermal energy at all heat sources and its supply to heating networks must be carried out on competitive terms.
8. It is necessary to introduce a tariff policy aimed at gradually ending cross-subsidies between thermal units (systems), groups of consumers and move from calculating tariffs based on costs to the formation of an upper limit price level for the production and transmission of thermal energy according to an established formula focused on standard performance indicators equipment. The division of CHPP costs into electrical and thermal energy when calculating tariffs should be carried out not using formal physical and technical methods, but on the basis of a flexible marketing policy that takes into account the economic situation in the markets for thermal and electrical energy. Depending on the type of service and form of payment, draw up a “tariff menu” for thermal energy (heat supply services) for end consumers. Offer within its framework a multi-rate tariff with payment for capacity and energy, including a bonus/penalty for saving/excessive consumption of thermal energy/coolant, etc. The tariff menu may include several tariff options that guarantee cost recovery.
9. It is necessary to stop any speculation regarding cross-subsidization between types of energy produced by thermal power plants. Allocation of costs for obtaining thermal and electrical energy at thermal power plants objectively does not have a scientifically or technically sound method, so all the talk
there is no basis for subsidizing this or that type of energy. As noted above, tariffs for these types of energy must be set taking into account the competition operating in both energy markets.
10. It is advisable to introduce a system of long-term tariffs, which should remain unchanged and stable for a long period, regardless of cost reductions as a result of modernization of production and increased operational efficiency of the heat supply organization. This system will stimulate cost reduction, which was never the goal of the ongoing reforms, and will make it possible to recoup the funds invested in upgrading equipment.
11. The introduction of tariffs must be entrusted to energy supply organizations. They must be responsible to consumers for rising tariffs. These functions must be removed from state and municipal authorities; they must control the costs included in the tariff and implement state policy in the field of tariff setting. Imposing tariff responsibility on energy supplying organizations will allow us to restore real justice: it is not the state that raises tariffs, but energy supplying companies.
12. As in the electric power industry, it is necessary to create a system of program documents regulating the development of heat supply to the country, regions, settlements and ensuring its innovative transformation, as well as to develop a methodology for forecasting heat consumption volumes (including supply and demand schedules), which will reduce the costs of new unjustified construction .
13. The state program “Heat of Russia” should be developed and actively implemented in the future. It must determine specific program measures for reforming heat supply in areas, financial, organizational support, distribution of responsibility for the results obtained, resulting in positive effects for the consumer.
14. It is necessary to clarify the procedure for the development and approval of Heat Supply Schemes. The current version of the law provides that this document for cities with a population of 500 thousand people or more is approved by the relevant federal executive body. It is proposed to supplement this norm with a provision stating that the latter approves the Heat Supply Scheme upon the proposal of the local government body, which is its customer. In addition, it is necessary to provide for preliminary, prior to approval, approval of the Heat Supply Scheme by the executive authority of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation. The last proposal also applies to the approval of Schemes for cities with smaller populations, which in the current law is entrusted to the local government.
15. It is necessary to conduct an inventory and audit of heat supply facilities and systems, evaluate their technical level, organizational and personnel support, take this as a starting point and begin to transform the industry.
16. It is necessary to change the mentality of employees of the Ministry of Energy, heads of energy companies, all energy specialists, as well as heads of federal and regional executive authorities in terms of disdainful attitude towards heat supply. Such an adjustment in mentality is necessary not only for the effective development of heat supply, but also for the simple survival of the country.
Heat supply is the most important area of services provided to a wide range of consumers; it is an industry that determines the well-being of our society, social stability and competitiveness of the country's economy. Improving these indicators is a national task, the successful solution of which should be facilitated by effective reforms carried out in the heat supply industry.
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The Altai single-industry town will become the first municipality in Russia, which in 2019 will switch to a new model of the thermal energy market, the so-called “alternative boiler house”. What is it? And why will this city be the pioneer?
Last week, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed decree No. 1937-r, which included the city of Rubtsovsk (more than 140 thousand population) in the Altai Territory in the heat supply price zone. In 2019, this municipality will be the first in the country to switch to a new method of tariff regulation - the so-called “alternative boiler room” model. To achieve this, the city’s heat supply scheme still needs to be updated. And also sign an agreement on its implementation with a single heat supply organization (ETO) - Rubtsovsky Heat and Power Complex JSC, an enterprise of the Siberian Generating Company (SGK).
“The agreement establishes the obligations of the heat energy supplier to carry out measures for the construction, reconstruction and modernization of thermal infrastructure facilities, as well as responsibility for their violation. The agreement will also fix the maximum price level for thermal energy for consumers,” the Russian Ministry of Energy said in a statement.
Mikhail Kuznetsov
General Director of SGC
Indeed, this year SGK is completing a large-scale project for the industry in Rubtsovsk, which began in the second half of 2016. This city remained a headache for the regional authorities for many years; every year it stood on the brink of disaster during the preparation and passage of the autumn-winter period. In order to increase the reliability and quality of the heat supply system, SGK completely rebuilt its configuration: instead of two heat sources, there was only one - the Southern Thermal Station (UTS). Two new boilers with a capacity of 30 Gcal/hour each were installed there and the fuel supply was adjusted. By the end of the year, they will also launch a 6 MW turbine to cover their own electricity needs - in fact, UTS will become a thermal power plant. In addition, about 20 km of heating networks have been re-laid or reconstructed in Rubtsovsk.
The order signed by Medvedev coincided with the beginning of the new heating season: on September 17, SGK began filling 271.5 km of main and intra-block heating networks in Rubtsovsk. According to the director of Rubtsovsky Heat and Power Complex JSC, Maxim Novov, the enterprise has already formed the necessary fuel reserves: about 40 thousand tons of coal and 2 thousand tons of fuel oil. “Based on the information provided by the company management and the city leadership, I can calmly say that everything will be fine in Rubtsovsk this heating season,” said the head of the Altai Territory, Viktor Tomenko, during a trip to the city in early September.
“Saving” Rubtsovsk from a communal disaster cost SGK 2 billion rubles. The “alternative boiler house” model will allow the company to return its investment within 12 years. But the new mechanism of tariff regulation is suitable not only for municipalities that are, as they say, “to the point.” “Alternative boiler room” is a universal model that is also suitable for cities, where for now everything may even look quite good. The important thing is that there it will be possible not to “put out fires”, but to calmly and systematically modernize the infrastructure. Without waiting for the happy times to end and painful decisions to be made to get out of the crisis... “Now the heads of Russian municipalities have received an effective tool for attracting investment in the industry. We hope they will study the experience of Rubtsovsk and make the right decisions about the possibility of applying a new method of tariff regulation in their cities, without waiting for negative consequences to occur,” Ekaterina Kosogova is sure.
So what is an “alt boiler room”?
The inclusion of Rubtsovsk in the heat supply price zone became possible after the new heat market model was enshrined in the law - it is spelled out in changes to Federal Law No. 190 “On Heat Supply”, approved on July 29, 2017 by President Vladimir Putin. Energy companies have been waiting for these amendments. The production and distribution of heat, unlike electricity, in our country is still fully regulated by the state. There is a market for kilowatts in the country, albeit often criticized; but generators often earn nothing at all from gigacalories. And they bear a social burden (after all, cities cannot be “frozen”), covering losses from heat generation with income from the sale of electricity. “This is a product that is produced not to heat houses, but to keep light bulbs on, but they pay for it. We are effectively forced to cross-subsidize one activity with another. I don’t think this is fair,” said Mikhail Kuznetsov, General Director of SGK, in an interview with NGS.
But what is even sadder is that the current scheme for calculating tariffs based on costs in heat supply does not at all encourage energy companies to invest in the modernization, first of all, of heating networks - as a rule, the most worn-out and problematic element of the infrastructure. Unlike large thermal power plants, numerous boiler houses are not updated - this negatively affects not only the ecology of cities, but also reduces the efficiency and reliability of the entire system. Reason: when costs decrease, the tariff for the next year is recalculated and reduced. At the end of last year, in an interview with the Kommersant newspaper, Mikhail Kuznetsov described this flaw extremely colorfully: “Let’s say that a certain heat supply system has developed in the city - with leaking pipes, half-loaded boiler houses, inefficient heat sources, and we see that if we reduce the excesses, it will will become more efficient. To do this, let’s say, you need to invest 8 billion rubles, and after that we will start earning 800 million rubles a year. Within nine to ten years we will return the invested money, taking into account interest on the loan. But the regulation is such that as soon as I invest these 8 billion rubles and earn 800 million rubles, these 800 million rubles will be taken from me, and I will not be able to return the investment. This is how tariff regulation is structured using the cost-plus method.”
What will change with the new model? First of all, now local authorities will be able to set the maximum price level for thermal energy for the end consumer - and not for one year, but for 5-10 years at once. To understand what this “ceiling” is, the price of heat energy supply from a source replacing centralized heat supply - that very “alternative boiler house” - will be used. No one will actually build such a facility; it will appear only in calculations. Moreover, where the cost of heat is higher than the level of an alternative boiler house, the tariff will be frozen and will not rise until natural inflation brings it closer to this ceiling. And where it is lower, it will grow smoothly during the transition period.
According to some calculations, the cost of one gigacalorie of an “alternative boiler house” in regions, for example, Siberia, can be 2.3-2.6 thousand rubles. This is twice the current tariffs. A number of experts are already sowing panic - they say that it is time for consumers in the cities of the Siberian Federal District to prepare for a multiple jump in the cost of Gcal, which is fraught with social tension and an increase in protest activity. However, such a development is unlikely. Firstly, the authorities will definitely not agree to this; secondly, this is not necessary for the ETO itself. Payment discipline and stable cash flow are more important for companies than short-term financial records.
“Calculations of tariff growth, which experts show, once again confirm: the current price level is critically behind economically justified ones. This means that the heating network infrastructure in most nodes is degrading. That is, an increase in tariffs with fair pricing is possible. Another thing is that the law provides for the right of municipalities to establish a transition period during which such growth can be carried out smoothly. A five-year term may be more interesting for gas regions, and a ten-year term for coal regions. Therefore, there can be no talk of any one-time price shock,” says Roman Nizhankovsky, Deputy General Director - Executive Director of T Plus PJSC.
It’s hard for ordinary people to believe, but, as Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Vyacheslav Kravchenko emphasized, what is important for investors in heat is not so much the principle of setting tariffs, but the understanding that the saved money will not be taken away from them.
Mikhail Kuznetsov
General Director of SGC
“We understand where billions could be invested in each city. In Barnaul there is room to invest about nine billion: to replace one-day boiler houses, for the maintenance of which mountains of municipal and regional money need to be allocated, while it is sometimes difficult to breathe in the city. We need serious investments, but give us an “alt boiler house” with a slight increase in tariff - 1.5-2% of inflation - for ten years and we will work normally"
According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, made back in 2016, the transition to an “alternative boiler house” will attract about 2.5 trillion rubles to the heat supply, increase GDP by at least 600 billion rubles, create more than 35 thousand new jobs and fill the budget for 800 billion rubles in tax deductions. In addition to increasing investment attractiveness, the “alt boiler house” will clearly have a positive impact on the reliability of heat supply systems, stimulate the growth of energy efficiency, as well as centralization - due to the withdrawal of inefficient and therefore overly expensive heat sources from the market.
“The “alternative boiler house” scheme makes return on investment in the heating business possible and legal for the first time. This is a long-term mechanism with clear scenario conditions that encourages the use of the most effective technologies. This is very important, since it is the distribution infrastructure that is usually the “pain point” of thermal units. Municipalities have neither the funds nor the competence to effectively operate heating networks. On the other hand, a competent private operator can significantly improve the quality of heat supply, since this also meets its business interests. Now local authorities have the tools to attract such business executives,” sums up Roman Nizhankovsky, Deputy General Director - Executive Director of T Plus PJSC.
It is planned that most Russian regions will switch to a new heat market model from 2016 to 2022. The Russian government is confident that this is the only way to correct the difficult situation in the heat supply sector.
In October 2014, the government approved a plan for the transition to a new price model of the heat market. The key provision of the reform was the introduction of free pricing based on the principle of “alternative boiler room”.
“The fundamental essence of the “alternative boiler room” model is the emergence of a new institution in large cities - the Unified Heat Supply Organization (UTO),” explains Oleg Evseev, a researcher at the Institute of Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences. - It will be responsible for the entire process of delivering heat from the producer to the consumer. In addition, the organization assumes full responsibility for the quality and reliability of heat supply.” Previously, the construction of this chain was in the hands of local administrations. The consumer will have the right to switch to their own heat supply sources if they consider this option more profitable for themselves.
A fixed tariff ceiling will be established for ETO, which will be determined on the basis of the “alternative boiler room” principle. If existing prices are below the assigned ceiling, they will be gradually increased; if they already exceed the level, they will be frozen.
The model determines the lowest price of thermal energy for the consumer, which pays for the construction of a new boiler house, an alternative to centralized heat supply. For example, with such a system in the Central Federal District, the tariff for a gas boiler house would be 1,505 rubles/Gcal. In general, this figure ranges from 1250 to 1600 rubles/Gcal, depending on the region. Thus, each region will be able to decide independently: buy heat from a thermal power plant or build its own boiler house.
Panacea or utopia?
The Ministry of Energy is confident that the new model will improve the quality and reliability of heat supply, as well as ensure the necessary influx of investment. “This is truly a modern model for setting a tariff for heat for the consumer,” notes Evgeniy Ilyin, associate professor of the Department of Thermal Power Plants of the National Research University “MPEI”. - Firstly, it stimulates the continuous improvement of heat supply processes, turning thermal energy into a market commodity. The model protects the consumer from uncontrollable price increases due to excessive monopolization of heat supply processes and the subsequent possibility of price manipulation. Coefficients that take into account the characteristics of regions are standardized, so even an absolute monopoly will not be able to set tariffs higher than the price of an alternative boiler house.” However, not everyone believes that the “alternative boiler house” model is the only panacea. “Everyone may have a different view of the situation. “I believe that in principle there can be no heat market - this is fiction,” said Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy Ivan Grachev. - Roughly speaking, there is one pipe, and you have no other options. What kind of market are we talking about here?”
As the deputy emphasized, most northern countries openly admit that at best this is a quasi-market and there cannot be any purely market mechanisms for heat.
One of the controversial provisions of the reform was the formula for calculating the cost of 1 Gcal from an “alternative boiler house”. Initially, it included losses at the level of 12%, whereas in reality they are 20–30%. Many experts believe that this could lead to the bankruptcy of the ETO or to a requirement to increase tariffs. Also causing debate is the determination of the cost of a typical boiler house, which will form the basis for calculating the tariff. The Ministry of Energy emphasized that experts collected complete statistics on construction costs from independent consumers and generators. The resulting corridor ranged from 1100 to 1500 rubles. for 1 Gcal.
There are many options
At the insistence of the Federal Antimonopoly Service and the Federal Tariff Service, the government agreed to use other methods of regulating the heat market until the end of the transition period, in particular “cost plus” (a method in which a standard markup is added to the assessment of the cost of production). Thus, until 2023, tariffs will be regulated through indexation at the pace that was outlined in the schedules. “If we understand that market mechanisms do not lead to fair prices in this particular situation, then the cost rationing mechanism should be turned on,” emphasizes Ivan Grachev. - Strictly speaking, the idea of an “alternative boiler house” is one of such mechanisms, a special case of cost rationing. However, for some reason, colleagues from the government are positioning it as the only possible option.”
According to the parliamentarian, cost rationing in this case should be based on different options. For each region, the practice that will be most beneficial and convenient for it should be applied. “In America, for example, entire volumes of estimates have been written that normalize costs in such situations,” adds Ivan Grachev. - In my opinion, it was necessary to pursue a more consistent policy. Do not say that the “alternative boiler room” option is the only and irreplaceable one, but consider it as one of the possible ones. It should have been made clear that other cost rationing principles could be applied if necessary.”
As the next step in the reform, the Ministry of Energy intends to issue guidelines for calculating an “alternative boiler house”. In particular, technical specifications for the construction and operation of an “alternative boiler house” have already been drawn up, taking into account regional coefficients and different types of fuel. “For now, the most serious questions are raised by a possible increase in tariffs and the period for repayment of capital,” notes Oleg Evseev. - According to calculations, it should be ten years. This is quite a significant period of time."
A hit to the wallet
The Ministry of Energy admitted that the cornerstone of the new model will remain the rise in prices for thermal energy. Due to the serious deterioration of the infrastructure, it is necessary to increase the tariff higher than planned. According to experts from the Ministry of Energy, even if tariffs remain at the inflation level, adjusted by a coefficient of 0.7, as stated in the socio-economic development forecast, it will be very difficult to attract investment into the industry.
Energy producers, in turn, expressed full support for the “alternative boiler room” model. In their opinion, now large heat consumers, having gotten rid of cross-subsidies, will be able to count on a fair price without additional payment for the population.
The most significant result for the ordinary consumer of the transition to the “alternative boiler house” model could be a serious increase in heat tariffs. “If the “alternative boiler room” turns out to be the only alternative, then I’m afraid that its implementation will become an impetus for rising prices,” believes Ivan Grachev.
Initially, the introduction of the “alternative boiler house” model was planned for 2016–2017. However, after the Federal Tariff Service announced that in this case in a number of regions the price of heat could jump by 400–700%, it was decided to extend the transition period until 2023.
The transition of each region to the “alternative boiler house” model was calculated individually. The basis was the current price of heat and the cost of an alternative boiler house in this region. The “pilot” cities were Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Perm, Krasnoyarsk and several other large centers.
Energy companies immediately expressed their dissatisfaction with the delay in completing the reform. According to representatives of industry companies, it is the timing of the launch of the “alternative boiler house” that will become the main signal for investors. In addition, delaying the transition until 2023 will significantly slow down the pace of industry modernization. As the generating companies emphasize, replacing old networks is impossible without attracting federal funding.
At the end of December 2015, in an interview with the Kommersant newspaper, the Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak stated that there is a possibility of adopting a law on the introduction of an alternative boiler house method by the end of 2016, with the prospect of the emergence by 2017 of “pilot projects in regions interested in developing their own heat supply, which, if desired, will be able to make tariff decisions that differ from the socio-economic forecast” .
The idea of switching to an alternative boiler house method as an element of the thermal energy reform has been discussed by the professional energy community for more than one year. In fact, the federal law “On Heat Supply,” which came into force in 2010, became the foundation for reforming the Russian heat and power industry. But due to fears of rising tariffs, the new model of the heat market in Russia has not yet been adopted, although the roadmap for heat supply reform included the adoption of a law on liberalizing heat prices in the first quarter of 2015. The government is now considering scenarios in which the alternative boiler house method will be both the only way to regulate the heat power market and one of the options.
As a rule, alternative boiler energy means a facility with a capacity of 25–50 Gcal/h. This is a local source of heat supply, which consumers (housing and communal services, small consumers) can replace with third-party heat supply organizations. The tariff of an alternative boiler house is defined as the lowest price for thermal energy from the consumer, at which the project of constructing a new boiler house, independent of centralized sources, pays off.
The new model assumes the emergence in large cities of a single heat supply organization (ETO), responsible for the entire chain of heat delivery to the consumer. Unified rules and a method for determining the maximum price are approved: from the “cost” approach to the “how much does it actually cost” approach. The maximum price for heat fixed for ETO is determined according to the principle of an alternative boiler house. The goal of the reform is to attract investors to an area where the wear and tear of equipment and networks reaches 80%, consumers are moving away from the central heat supply system to their own generation.
Fair tariff
“The alternative boiler house method is quite simple and straightforward. According to experts’ calculations, it will not entail too sharp an increase in tariffs, which everyone is so afraid of,” says the director of the Heat division of Siberian Generating Company LLC (SGK) Igor Maksimov.
If today pricing is based on the costs of production and delivery of coolant, when the principle “the more money a company spent this year, the easier it is for it to increase the tariff for the next year” applies, and over the past 10 years the energy tariff has increased by more than 250%, then with the introduction The alternative boiler house method puts the interests of the consumer at the forefront. Calculating the cost of a consumer's transition to their own source of heat supply, taking into account the repayment of the loan for the construction and operation of the boiler house, allows us to determine the ceiling for the maximum heat price level, above which it is impossible to find a consumer. With this model, each resource supplier determines its own price, but not higher than the value of the alternative boiler house. The proposed method allows you to adjust tariffs in each region of the country. Where the cost of heat is higher than the level of the alternative boiler house, it is frozen and does not rise until natural inflation approaches this ceiling. And where it is lower, it grows during a transition period lasting several years. In this case, the price will be determined in agreement with local authorities.
According to participants in the heat generation market, there are regions in Siberia where tariffs are higher than the level of an alternative boiler house, which means that switching to a new method will allow the tariff to be frozen there. “The introduction of a new model will first of all ensure a stable cash flow in the industry and thereby solve the problem of its long-term underfinancing and, as a result, improve the state of the system over time. It will create simple and understandable rules of the game. And also, in the end, the introduction of the method should eliminate inefficient and expensive heat sources from the market, and encourage those who remain to constantly improve internal efficiency,” Igor Maksimov is sure.
The expert points out that the current cost-plus tariff system only provokes an increase in costs, since those who spend more receive the highest tariff. “In such a situation, boiler houses with higher tariffs are pushing highly efficient thermal power plants out of the market. Using the alternative boiler house method could eliminate this imbalance and provide fairer conditions for cogeneration. Uniform rules for determining prices for all market participants, firstly, will help improve the internal efficiency of heat supply organizations, and secondly, encourage them to invest in the development and improvement of the heat supply system.”
“In its pure form, the alternative boiler room method is very good. The conditions of the game for any investor and consumer are transparent and understandable for a fairly long period in advance. Since the rules of the game are fixed, working in this area becomes more clear and predictable for all parties,” comments Deputy General Director for Sales, Member of the Board of PJSC TGC-14 Yuri Dorfman. - Today, the heat generation sector is so regulated that no one can take a step either to the right or to the left, but the biggest problem is that the rules of the game change every day, new regulations are issued literally every month. It is impossible to build any long-term strategy today, and without planning normal work it is impossible to build a normal business.”
With unconditional support for the idea of reforming the heat and power industry, Siberian market participants still have many questions about how the alternative boiler house method will be implemented in practice. “In the current economic situation, this is, in fact, the only way to maintain investments in the creation of new heat generation against the background of the total deterioration of the majority of thermal power plants built during the Soviet period. At the same time, the model requires detailed study. Thus, it is unclear how regional authorities will regulate the market and how long-term this regulation will be. It is unclear how the weight of correction factors for combined generation will be taken into account in relation to alternative boiler plants. It is also unknown how correctly the alternative boiler house method will take into account the peculiarities of the operating conditions of heat supply organizations,” lists the “dark places” in the reform, the general director of First Energy Company LLC (PEK is the founder of IDK LLC, which manages the Rubtsovskaya CHPP, which provides 62% of the needs Rubtsovsk in warmth and hot water) Pavel Grachev.
One thing is obvious - the implementation of the alternative boiler house policy will attract investment into the industry.
Attractiveness will increase
“The transition to an alternative boiler house method is today the only opportunity to attract investment in heat supply, which is in dire need of it,” says the director of the Heat division of Siberian Generating Company LLC (SGK) Igor Maksimov.
Currently, the main source of financing in the energy industry is tariffs for thermal energy, which, according to market participants, are strictly restrained by the state from year to year, and therefore do not even cover the necessary costs. “To attract investors, two conditions are necessary. The first is transparency of funds and assessment of the effectiveness of their investment. That is, if an investor understands that when investing, he is guaranteed to return his investment, without additional input from tariff regulators, he will be more likely to take part in the project. Today, the following picture is emerging: if an investor attracts money to the heat power industry, to energy saving, then the entire effect that results from this can be used by the regional tariff service not to provide him with a return of funds, but solely to reduce or prevent tariff growth in the region. The return on investment mechanism must be enshrined in some kind of legislative document,” Yuri Dorfman is convinced.
According to Igor Maksimov, the implementation of the “alternative boiler house” concept provides such guarantees to the investor. “Legislative consolidation of the principles of tariff setting using this method would enable potential investors to calculate how much money and over what period they can receive in a certain territory, and therefore plan long-term investments,” explains Igor Maksimov. Extremely important for potential investors, he said, is the approval of heat supply schemes, which indicate promising directions for the development of urban energy and help to most accurately identify modernization and construction projects.
The second prerequisite for the influx of investment into the industry, according to the top manager of PJSC TGC-14, should be “greater awareness of this area.” The expert complains that many Russians have a negative attitude towards thermal power enterprises. “As a result, any investor, when investing money in thermal generation, faces not only financial problems, but also a negative attitude towards all his proposals from society. Here, the task of both the media and the leadership of regions, cities, and municipalities is to carry out explanatory work about the importance and necessity of all such events, investment, and so on. It seems to me that if these two conditions are met, the investment attractiveness of this area will increase,” says Yuri Dorfman.
To increase the investment attractiveness of heat supply organizations, Pavel Grachev proposes to “exclude from regulation such non-economic concepts as the maximum index of changes in citizens’ fees.”
It's better when alone
According to Igor Maksimov, the approval of a single heat supply organization, as required by the implementation of the alternative boiler house strategy, creates real competition between heat sources: “By receiving a single marginal tariff, the heat supply organization will purchase the resource from those who produce heat cheaper. Expensive producers who find it unprofitable to sell energy at such a price will simply leave the market. Ultimately, this will also affect the slowdown in tariff growth.” He considers the existing competition in the heat market to be ineffective. Receiving higher tariffs from regulators, expensive and inefficient boiler houses win competition in the market. “If they finally win this competition from thermal power plants, then consumers will lose first of all, receiving a significantly higher tariff,” warns Igor Maksimov.
“We definitely take the position that a single heating organization is better than many of them. When the heat supply system is concentrated in single hands, it is possible to get an organization that can maintain, operate, and repair,” Yuri Dorfman agrees with his colleague. - There is a prospect of reducing costs due to scale. After all, the costs of small organizations are always higher than those of a large company. In addition, this is a single center of responsibility, including social responsibility, to residents. When there are a lot of organizations, until you figure out who is to blame, which organization owns the house, then run and catch up.”
Expressing their readiness to become a single heat supply organization, and it is impossible to imagine otherwise, Irkutskenergo associates the introduction of the alternative boiler house method with the elimination of the vicious practice of cross-subsidization, which is currently included in energy tariffs. “Cross-subsidization, when for the population and similar categories tariffs are lower than the economically justified costs of energy companies and industrial enterprises pay extra for them, this is nonsense; there is no such economy in any other market. When introducing the alternative boiler house method, it is inevitable that the consumer receiving the resource through heating networks will pay more than the organization “powered” from the collector. And this is fair,” emphasizes the Deputy General Director for Energy Sales of OJSC Irkutskenergo. Maxim Matveev.
You can't do without risks
Igor Maksimov believes that the authorities have greatly delayed the reform of the industry: the transition to an alternative boiler house should have happened several years ago. “The timing for reform is ill-chosen because it is too late. The socio-economic reasons cited by the authorities will always be against changes and innovations, but if this is not done now, in 5–10 years we will end up with a completely destroyed heat supply system of the country, the restoration of which will require completely different funds - tens or hundreds times larger,” warns Igor Maksimov.
The business does not see the readiness to work using the “boiler” method on the part of the regional authorities. “Regional authorities will never be ready for this. For many, the introduction of a new model implies an increase in tariffs, and this is an unpopular measure that the authorities are always reluctant to take and try in every possible way to avoid. In a number of regions, there is also a problem of affiliation of government officials with boiler houses, which now receive high tariffs due to this, and with the transition to an alternative boiler house, they will lose this opportunity and, most likely, will leave the market. In this situation, local elites also do not support the new methodology,” complains a representative of the SGC.
Market participants are not happy that the industry’s transition to the alternative boiler house method will occur in stages, through the creation of pilot projects. “The main risk is associated with the implementation of the model in a trial version. It is absolutely not suitable in this case, since the results of innovations can only be assessed after 10–20 years. At the initial stage, one will only see an increase in tariffs, which no one except energy workers will like,” Igor Maksimov makes a negative forecast. - Now the wear of pipes is about 70%, but even if you find the necessary means, they cannot be replaced at once. But the sooner money appears for this, and therefore, the sooner power engineers can begin the replacement process, the sooner the moment will come when all consumers will feel the result.” In addition, the “pilot” status, to put it mildly, does not guarantee that the practice of an alternative boiler house will stay on the market for a long time, and therefore, it can be “curtailed” at any time, which creates additional risks of non-return of invested funds.
Maxim Matveev calls the main risk of introducing the alternative boiler house method the increase in debt of “non-switchable consumers” - budgetary organizations to heat producers and suppliers. “Given that the tariff for heat resources may increase, we may face an increase in accounts receivable. And this is a problem, because it is almost impossible to disconnect municipal unitary enterprises and other budgetary organizations from heating networks; the laws contain very serious restrictions. But this is a risk that we are ready for, given that the market as a whole is becoming more honest,” summarized the top manager of Irkutskenergo.
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