When does summer begin in the southern Urals? This summer is a serious anomaly: an interview with the chief Ural meteorologist about temperature records and an insidious anticyclone
Residents of the Sverdlovsk region are tired of cold weather and gloomy skies. And the weather forecast for the coming days is disappointing: the air temperature will be significantly below the climate norm. When will it finally get warm? The Regional Newspaper decided to find out about this from the chief weather forecaster of the Ural Hydrometeorological Center Galina SHEPORENKO.
- Galina Andriyanovna, k What will the first month, if I may say so, of summer be like?
– The first ten days of the first summer month will also be cold. But there is hope that real summer will come in the second decade of June. However, I cannot confidently give a forecast for such a long period.
- What explains such prolonged cold weather in May?
– This is how the circulation of atmospheric flows developed. Cold Arctic air from the northern territories very often entered the Middle Urals. But the heat accumulates in the south of the European part and does not move towards us.
– How often do such unlucky years, from a weather point of view, occur?
- Infrequently. But a complete analogy is always very difficult to find. The weather is not the same, every year it is different and brings unexpected surprises. At the same time, in Yekaterinburg the average monthly temperature in May is only one degree below normal. And the precipitation in May was within normal limits. A characteristic feature of this May is that there was no increase in heat in the second half of the month, as is usually the case. In addition, there are often frosts. Therefore, this year farmers in the Middle Urals started agricultural work late. And besides, because the earth, as they say, did not ripen in time. The winter had little snow, and the soil froze deeper than usual and took a very long time to thaw. The moisture stagnated. Therefore, there are serious concerns about whether the harvest will have time to ripen this summer.
By the way
According to the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, during the current working week, under the influence of cyclones and atmospheric fronts in the Urals and Western Siberia, it will be rainy and very windy. A powerful cyclonic vortex centered over the Northern Urals will bring heavy rains on May 31 to the Sverdlovsk and Kurgan regions. In the Sverdlovsk region during the day the temperature is no higher than plus 10 degrees; at night the temperature can drop to zero.
This summer Ekaterinburg is sweltering in the heat. After the cold summer of 2014 and 2015, most city residents are happy about this weather - there is no need to go abroad, because the Ural weather is not inferior to the resorts. One enterprising guy even figured out how to make money from the heat and...
– But they post information about the weather for a month on the Internet... class="_">
– I can’t say that they are great. I don't think it's worth doing this at all. There is no need to mislead the population.
– How accurately can you predict the weather for three days? class="_">
– We have a fairly good accuracy of forecasts. In the region we have an average of 98% accuracy, in Yekaterinburg – 92%. We forecast worse for the city because we only have one weather station here. For example, we predict that it will rain in Yekaterinburg. It really is going on, but not on Meteogorka, but in the South-Western district of the city. It's dry here. Therefore, we cannot take our forecast into account. Our weather station did not record rain, so we set ourselves a minus. To prevent this from happening, additional weather stations need to be installed in the city. We are currently negotiating this issue with the government.
– And you can determine an accurate weather forecast for regional settlements. And how to do this - if you don’t have weather stations everywhere? class="_">
“When the Ministry of Emergency Situations asks us to say for each locality whether there will be hail or heavy rain, so that they can prepare and react in advance, unfortunately, we cannot do this. We, the forecasters of the Ural region, and in general all the forecasters in the world, cannot. Almost now there are no forecasts with good justification for calculating any local weather phenomena - squalls, thunderstorms, hail, rain showers. We can guess. On the locator we see where this outbreak is moving. We can indicate at what speed and where it is going. But in which locality it will reach its maximum development is already problematic. Such accuracy of forecasts does not yet exist.
There is only one weather station in Yekaterinburg - it is located on Meteogorka.
– You said that long-term forecasting is a thankless task. Perhaps you can still say what kind of autumn awaits us? class="_">
– I can say that we have forecasts from the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, and according to these forecasts, at the beginning of autumn the air temperature will be close to normal. Precipitation will also be within normal limits. The forecast sets us up for average weather. But in fact, we see that we are exceeding the norm and this will most likely continue.
For us, forecasts are good for a week, for three days, when we can predict the weather with good probability. When weather forecasters have good forecasts, no one notices. But if suddenly it doesn’t come true, everyone can see it. But this is normal, because the demand for our products is so great that there simply cannot be any other attitude.
– The proverb says: if the summer is hot, then the winter will be evil. Does it work for us? class="_">
– If we take the law of conservation of energy, then in principle this should be the case. But our history shows that this does not have to be the case. We had hot summers and fairly warm winters. There is no such direct pattern. We were also puzzled by this problem, we compared, but no... there are coincidences, but there is no pattern.
– What will the end of summer be like? class="_">
– We don’t see any changes in the coming week. And after the 20th the temperature will drop by 5, or even 10 degrees, and the rains will not escape us. Summer will remain, but it will be more comfortable.
– What needs to be done to ensure that next summer is just as warm? class="_">
- Wait. We can't do anything. We are not gods!
Poll: Do you like this abnormally hot summer?
- Yes, let everyone be like this!
- It would be a little cooler!
- No, I have a hard time with the heat
“Such climate changes are the other side of the coin of global warming. What's going on overall? The planet is warming, and this process will continue in the future. Additional energy is pumped into the atmosphere. It must produce work, that is, accelerate air masses. Accordingly, the more energy, the stronger the acceleration. But it is difficult to predict where bad weather will happen to whom. Within two years, the atmosphere of both hemispheres is completely mixed. There are no isolated places. We can only say with certainty that the number of extreme climate events and their scale will increase throughout the planet. For example, precipitation becomes very uneven: the monthly norm may fall in one day. Will this process affect the Urals? The question is debatable. To predict what anomalies will be in a particular region, the development of climate models is needed. And this requires a lot of time, effort and financial investments,” the scientist said.
By the way, Vyacheslav Zakharov refutes popular conspiracy theories about the existence of climate weapons directed against Russia. “You can believe in these versions or not. But there is the concept of climate as a physical system. The energy of one cyclone is so enormous that it is comparable to a hundred atomic bombs. Humanity now simply does not have the resources to influence the climate,” the specialist believes.
Over time, showers and windy weather will “capture” the Urals more and more often, and people will have to adapt to these conditions. Moreover, it is humanity that is to blame for global warming. Millions of cars and deforestation contribute to the greenhouse effect, while the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreements do not bring tangible benefits, the agency’s interlocutor notes. The forecast of climate scientists is still disappointing. Over the past 100 years, the planet's average annual temperature has risen by one degree. In the 21st century, the heating process has accelerated.
“Our French colleague, the famous climatologist Jean Juzel, says that if the planet warms by another two degrees, then the point of no return will come - it will be too late to fight global warming. But there are other opinions that give the planet more chances. So it would be nice to determine this point of no return,” says Vyacheslav Zakharov.
If you look into the distant future, a Venus scenario awaits an overheated Earth.
“The temperature on Venus reaches 450 degrees Celsius, the pressure is 90 Earth atmospheres. Our planet has the same amount of carbon dioxide, but, unlike Venus, it is hidden in different reservoirs. If we take the entire amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere as a unit, then ten times more is found in biota (trunks and roots of plants), a hundred times more soluble gas in the ocean, and hundreds of thousands of times more in carbonates and mountain sediments. When all this burns out, and if the temperature rises, then everything burns out, then on Earth there will be a powerful greenhouse effect, like on Venus. But, of course, these processes will take tens of thousands of years,” explained the UrFU scientist.
Every morning I wake up to bright sunshine! And in my head I thought: “Hurry to the beach! Hurry up and swim! In summer the world becomes brighter!”
As some weather forecasters predicted, summer will come this year not gradually, but all at once, that is, suddenly.
Already at the beginning of May, people will change their warm clothes for summer ones. And apparently they were right.
Now in most of our country the air temperature exceeds 20 degrees Celsius, and in some Russian settlements the thermometer even goes beyond 30.
What kind of summer awaits us in 2019?
Of course, many are interested in the question: “What kind of summer will it be this year - hot, dry, or, conversely, cool and humid, or will it just be warm?” Someone wants to know this in order to understand what kind of harvest they can expect, someone is thinking about what clothes should be purchased, and for others it is important to know about this in order to take time off from work in the most favorable weather.
Forecasters' weather forecasts for the summer of 2019 differ somewhat. Some argue that summer in Russia will not be hot and even rainy. Drought and forest fires threaten only the south of Russia.
In general, this summer in our country will be warm, but not very long. This means that throughout the summer the average monthly air temperature will be slightly higher than the climate norm. And the summer will be short because, according to some meteorologists, it will become somewhat cool already in August in the central regions of Russia, as well as in the north of the country: there will be frequent rains and the cold wind will increase.
But weather forecasters are reassuring that the weather in August will at times change to warm. True, the end of August will be cold, even colder than the beginning of this month and its middle. However, in the south of the country August will be warm, but there may be heavy rains. Somewhere until mid-September there will be sunny, warm weather, unless, of course, short-term rains and thunderstorms are taken into account.
In the Urals, according to weather forecasters, in June it will be dry and practically without precipitation; in July it will still be warm and even hot - the thermometer will rise to 28 degrees, however, the heat will alternate with showers and thunderstorms. In August it will be warm there, but it will rain periodically.
According to other forecasters, the summer of 2019 in our country will be extremely dry, which could leave Russia even without a harvest. Considering that they are also predicting an economic crisis for the country, the picture being drawn is depressing: it’s time to run to buy cereals and stock up on crackers.
What will summer 2019 be like in Crimea?
The continental and maritime climate prevailing in Crimea guarantees a comfortable summer.
The air will warm up during the day to an average of 26 0 C, Water 23 0 C. Mild and warm weather will allow you to relax comfortably this summer and spend your vacation here.
The CenterGeology company began its work on the peninsula. At the end of 2014, we started the difficult work of drilling wells in Crimea, as well as all the related work: arrangement of wells, organization of water filtration. Having your own source of water is now a particularly pressing issue.
However, people are people, and nature itself makes its own adjustments without asking anyone. Time will tell what the summer will be like.
Read the article: " What should you drink and eat in summer?"
At the end of March, the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia published its weather forecast for the next six months - from April to September 2018. Such forecasts are compiled so that authorities in one or another part of the country can assess the risks of natural disasters, the approximate degree of fire danger in the next summer season, etc. Forecasts for the spring-summer season are also important for agricultural enterprises. Of course, such long-term forecasts will also be of interest to ordinary residents of a particular region, especially regarding the weather in the summer months. What will the summer of 2018 be like in the Urals - will the summer be warmer relative to the long-term average, should we be afraid of a rainy summer this year. The probability of the presented forecasts is estimated by the Hydrometeorological Center itself at 69-72%.
May in the Urals in 2018 will be warmer than last year
The weather in the Urals in May 2018 will be slightly more comfortable than it was in 2017. In the main territory of the Urals, the air temperature will correspond to the long-term average values, and in the north of the district (north of Yekaterinburg, towards the Polar Urals) it will be even warmer than usual this month.
Average day and night temperatures in May for the capitals of the Ural regions look like this:
Approximately the same average air temperature can be expected in May 2018.
As for the amount of precipitation, it will also correspond to average values. In the north of the Sverdlovsk and Tyumen regions there will be less precipitation than usual.
June 2018 in the Urals - in some places a little rainier than usual
In June, in the territory of the Ural Federal District we should also expect air temperatures at the level of average long-term observations. Only in the very north of the district, in the Salekhard region, average temperatures will be above average.
In the main Ural cities, the average monthly temperature for June is as follows:
As for the amount of precipitation, in general it will correspond to average values, but in the northwestern part of the Ural District, on the border of the Sverdlovsk region and the Perm Territory, June will be slightly rainier than usual.
July 2018 in the Urals will be hot and rainy
Most of the Urals, from Chelyabinsk and Kurgan in the south to Khanty-Mansiysk and Surgut in the north, will enjoy hot weather in July. The average temperature in July 2018 is expected to be higher than the average observed for that month.
Temperatures corresponding to the average for July are expected in the north of the district, in particular in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.
Average day and night temperatures for July in the largest cities of the district are as follows:
For Chelyabinsk, Yekaterinburg, Tyumen and Kurgan, the month will be rainier than the average for this month. In the north of the county, precipitation will be typical for July.
August 2018 will be rainy in the east of the Urals
In August 2018, according to the long-term forecast of weather forecasters, the air temperature throughout the Urals will correspond to the climate norm for this month. Accordingly, you can focus on the average indicators for this month:
In the eastern regions of the Urals, in the Tyumen and Kurgan regions, the amount of precipitation will be above normal, and August will be rainy.