What is an economic crisis, what are the reasons for its occurrence and how to avoid it? Crisis of overproduction Modern classification of the economy.
For our compatriots, the word “crisis” has long become almost familiar. We hear it quite often in the news - after all, the economic crisis in Russia happens even more often than once a decade (if we take the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union).
However, not everyone knows exactly what the causes of the economic crisis in Russia are and how this threatens the ordinary citizen.and when it will end.IQReview I have collected up-to-date information and answers to similar questions in one place.
What is an economic crisis and what are its symptoms?
To summarize: an economic crisis is a complex of events during which a significant and sharp drop in production.
T This situation has a number of signs, including:
Rising unemployment rate.
Significant depreciation of the national currency.
Imbalance of supply and demand in various markets for goods and services.
Decrease in the solvency of citizens.
Decrease in GDP (or cessation of growth - if before this GDP was steadily increasing).
Decrease in the pace and volume of production in various industrial sectors.
Outflow of foreign capital.
Reducing the cost of raw materials.
The listed “symptoms” are only the main ones - in fact, the list of problems in the economy is much longer. They usually manifest themselves sharply, comprehensively (several points at once), and in a significant volume. For example, if the unemployment rate in the country increases by 5% over a year, then this is bad, but far from a crisis. But if in six months the national currency has depreciated by 30%, GDP has fallen, several thousand enterprises have gone bankrupt, and performance in various sectors of the economy has fallen - this is already a crisis.
Classification of crisis situations
Since a crisis is a large-scale phenomenon, it can be divided into various categories based on a number of characteristics:
Partial or sectoral. It is characterized by the fact that it covers a separate sector of the economy without leading to significant problems in other areas.
Cyclical. Characterized by the fact thatoccurs regularly (repeated at approximately equal time intervals). Usually its reasons are the obsolescence of industrial equipment and technologies, which leads to higher prices for products. To overcome such problems, a reorganization of the production structure is required.
Intermediate. It is similar to cyclical, but differs in that problems do not appear so acutely and abruptly. Also, the intermediate crisis is not regular - it does not repeat itself at approximately equal time intervals.
Crisis situations can also be divided by localization. They can occur in a single region, in a single country, several countries (neighboring), or in a large number of countries. The global economic crisis is the last option, when an economic decline is observed in several major countries at the same time.
Modern classification of economics
According to the NBER classification (National Bureau of Economic Research, USA), the state of the modern economy consists of only 4 phases:
Economic cycle
Peak (when the economic situation is at its most comfortable level).
Recession (when stability is disrupted and the economy begins to steadily deteriorate).
Bottom (lowest point of decline).
Revival (overcoming a low point, followed by a way out of a crisis situation).
N A little history: when have serious economic crises ever occurred?
To confirm the words that the global economic crisis is a regular phenomenon, here is a list of the largest economic collapses:
1900-1903. The crisis suddenly began in most European countries, and a little later in the United States. This economic crisis in Russia (in those years - still the Russian Empire) began even earlier - in 1899. Moreover, in Russia it developed into a protracted depression, which lasted about a decade - until 1909.
1914-1922, First World War. The crisis erupted due to military action that stopped or seriously affected the operations of thousands of companies in participating countries. The problems began even before the outbreak of hostilities - when the situation began to heat up and panic began in the financial markets.
“Price Scissors”, 1923. The collapse that affected the economy of the “young” USSR. It arose due to the lack of balance between the prices of industrial and agricultural goods.
"The Great Depression", 1929-1939. It had the strongest impact on the USA and Canada, to a lesser extent on France and Germany, and was also felt in other developed countries. The reasons for this collapse have not been precisely established; there are several versions. It broke out after the stock market crash in the United States, on Wall Street (this is where the expression “Black Monday” came from).
1939-1945, World War II. Naturally, such large-scale military actions led to the decline of the economies of all participating countries and affected other states.
Oil crisis (or oil embargo), 1973. Began due to the refusal of a number of countries (Arab states that are members of OAPEC, Egypt, Syria) to supply oil to Japan, the USA, the Netherlands, Canada, and the UK. The main objective of this action was to put pressure on these countries for supporting Israel in the military conflict against Syria and Egypt. This economic crisis in Russia (USSR at that time) did not bring negative consequences. On the contrary: oil supplies from the Union have increased significantly, and its cost in 1 year has increased from $3 to $12 per barrel.
The collapse of the USSR, the end of the 80s and the beginning of the 90s. The situation that led to the collapse of the Union developed under the pressure of several factors: sanctions from the West, decreased oil prices, lack of sufficient quantities of consumer goods, high unemployment, military operations in Afghanistan, and general dissatisfaction with the ruling elite. The collapse had a strong impact on the countries of the Union, and to a lesser extent on neighboring states (due to the deterioration or complete cessation of cooperation).
Russian crisis, 1994. After the collapse of the Union, the economic situation in the Russian Federation was in a deplorable state, and from 1991 to 1994 the situation steadily worsened. The causes of the problems were errors in state property, loss of economic ties, outdated technologies and equipment in production.
Russian default, 1998. Developed due to the inability to pay government debts. The precondition was the crisis in Asia, a sharp drop in oil prices and a sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate against the ruble (from 6 rubles to 21 rubles in just less than a month). The way out of the situation was protracted and difficult, and lasted for several years (it took different periods for different areas of the economy).
Asian financial crisis, 1997-1998 (one of the reasons for the Russian default). To one degree or another, it affected all states of the planet. It developed due to the very rapid growth of the economies of Asian countries, which is why a massive influx of foreign capital began in them. As a consequence, this led to “overheating,” sharp fluctuations in the financial and real estate markets, and subsequently to their destabilization and decline.
2008-2011. The scale and consequences of the economic crisis are comparable to the Great Depression. The collapse developed sharply in the United States, starting with the financial crisis. Having spread to the eurozone, it lasted even longer - until 2013. The crisis had little impact on the Russian segment, and its main consequences were overcome back in 2010.
Current crisis (since 2014). It was reflected in many countries by a sharp decline in the cost of oil. Sanctions that have disrupted economic relations between Western countries and the Russian Federation also have an impact.
Economic situation in Russia: a brief history of the current crisis
Since the last major crisis for Russia has not yet ended, we should dwell on it in more detail.
Economic situation in Russia
One of the first reasons for its development was the “Ukrainian events”, during which the Crimean peninsula passed from Ukraine to Russia. Also, since the first half of 2014, the Russian Federation has been regularly accused of sending troops into the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine. There is still no evidence of these accusations, but they still continue to be voiced.
To put pressure on the “aggressor,” Western countries (the United States and a number of European countries) introduced sanctions against the Russian Federation. Restrictions affected the industrial and financial sectors, which led to a sharp deterioration in the situation due to the fact that a number of companies lost the opportunity to receive “cheap” loans abroad and buy foreign equipment (raw materials, technologies).
At the same time, oil prices began to decline rapidly. From 2012 to mid-2014 they were in the range of $100-115 per barrel, and already in December 2014 they reached $56.5 (the lowest point since 2009). After this, the price of oil did not stabilize, but fluctuated regularly, and when it fell, it reached $27.5 per barrel (for the first time since 2003).
Due to the fact that the Russian economy was largely dependent on oil exports, this quickly led to a deterioration in the economy in all its sectors (in addition to the deterioration that arose due to sanctions).
Now (at the beginning of 2017) the country from the economic crisis gradually comes out. The price of oil has stabilized and has been in the 50-57 range since the fall of 2016$ per barrel. Along with the cost of raw materials, the national currency has also stabilized - about 55-60 rubles per dollar.
How do such problems threaten the average citizen?
The crisis is not only felt by companies in various sectors of the economy. It has no less influence on the ordinary citizen. An unfavorable situation leads to the following consequences:
Wages decrease (or slow down, or their growth stops).
Purchasing power decreases (due to rising prices, decreasing wages, and the desire to save).
We have to give up the usual range of products and entertainment.
Opportunities for receiving medical care and education are deteriorating.
Jobs are being cut (this can both lead to dismissal if a person has a job, and makes it more difficult for those who are looking for one).
The selection of goods in stores is decreasing (not always, not critically, and not in all areas).
Add to this other - intangible - problems. For a population whose standard of living is falling, their mood worsens—for every citizen individually. If the situation drags on, social tension may increase: trust in the government decreases, citizens more actively express their dissatisfaction (online, at rallies).
Causes of the crisis
There are many theories and explanations of the causes of crises, but one of the most common is the Marxist version. Proposed by Karl Marx (1st volume of Capital, 1867), it quite accurately describes the essence of problematic situations in the economy. Karl Marx noted that until the end of the 18th century (before the Industrial Revolution, when production began to rapidly develop in many countries), there were no regular cycles of booms and busts in the economy.
According to this theory, crisis is an integral part of the capitalist economy. No matter how stable, reliable and balanced the economic system of the state is, crisis situations still happened in it, are happening and will continue to happen. They can be “tamed,” their impact can be weakened, and they can be made more rare, but they cannot be completely eliminated.
Distributing free food to the unemployed during the Great Depression (USA)
According to the author, this is explained by the fact that any capitalist (owner of an enterprise) strives to increase profits. To do this, you need to sell as many goods as possible at the lowest cost of production. That is, the volumes of manufactured products are reached to the maximum.
However, no one controls the balance between the total cost of goods produced and the real wages of the population (which always receives less than it produces - otherwise the capitalist would not make a profit). As a result, over time, this leads to the production owner’s profit falling.
To avoid this, he begins to take active steps that are aimed either at increasing the volume of goods or at further reducing production costs. When this does not help, reductions begin at enterprises until they go bankrupt. As a result, unemployment is growing, and competitors are trying to take over the vacated market space, who will then face the same problems.
To summarize, every new economic crisis arises due to a lack of balance between the production and consumption of goods and services.
If we evaluate more narrowly, then among the causes of problems we can highlight:
Uncontrolled growth of inflation.
Focus on one sector of the economy and insufficient attention to other areas.
Political instability.
Errors in management.
Obsolescence of production.
The production of uncompetitive products that are inferior to imported goods, and at the same time cost no less (or not much cheaper) than them.
Ways out of the crisis
TO Each crisis situation is individual, and therefore there is no single “recipe” for overcoming it. However, we can summarize several basic steps that the authorities need to take to solve the problem:
Diversification of budget funds: creating the maximum number of ways to generate income. In this case, due to a fall in production in one industry (as in oil prices now in Russia), the economy as a whole will suffer less.
Creation of jobs - to increase employment of the population. This is useful for the budget because more funds will come in the form of taxes, and, in addition, the population will spend more, stimulating production. To create jobs, it is necessary to maintain a conducive environment for doing business.
Containing inflation.
Financial control: exchange rate, interest rate.
Informing the population and enterprises: about the current situation, forecasts and prospects, recommendations for overcoming problems.
Updating the industrial sector: equipment, technologies.
Support for key sectors of the economy, if necessary - adjustment of budget distribution (reducing costs for less important sectors and increasing costs for more important ones).
On the development and causes of financial crises (video)
Question: Tell us about the crisis of adolescence! What is this?
The essence of the crisis of adolescence lies in what psychology calls self-identification. That is, a person begins to recognize himself as an independent person and tries to position himself in this capacity.
Psychologist Carl Jung called this path individuation, economist Maslow gave this process the name “self-actualization”, in other sources it is called social integration or social autonomization, in other words, the search for one’s place in the society that is reality. In the society in which the young man will live.
The first step on this path is breaking away from the strongest attachment – family attachment. However, separation is the wrong word. What is meant rather is the young man’s refusal of traditions that are important to his family. Youthful maximalism usually turns this process into the actual denial of everything that is important for the older generation. As part of a youthful rebellion against family (and social) traditions, a young person can perform a variety of actions - from playing sports, yoga to using drugs or other searches for “non-standard solutions.” It is among young people that the desire to search for some common idea with other young people is especially noticeable. This is how youth subcultures arise: punks, goths, “greens,” skinheads and numerous others.
In fact, this is a completely understandable process that can be called “searching for your truth.” Moreover, this is true - first of all, about yourself, about your capabilities and potential. And also about possible ways to realize these potentials.
A child, coming into the world, does not realize that he himself - and the world around him - are somehow different. The first contact with the world is the mother. The first feeling of peace is mutual understanding. That is, the needs that the child has are satisfied by the mother. If they are not satisfied, the child signals by crying.
As the child gets older, he is faced with the fact that his needs are not always met. And the reaction to such behavior of the “world around us” gives the first understanding that “the world” and “I” are two adjacent, but not identical structures.
The process of achieving knowledge about yourself and your capabilities should ideally be completed by the age of 25-30. But it’s not a fact that everything in life will work out as ideally.
Formal manifestations of this socialization process are their own housing, separate from their parents, work, and sometimes their own family. But these are only external manifestations. The internal process of learning can last a lifetime...
In 1962 occurred . The whole world was on the edge of an abyss - and this is not an exaggeration. The Cold War, which had been dragging on between the USSR and the USA for almost twenty years, could escalate into a nuclear conflict. The Soviet Union secretly transported its missiles to Cuba, and of course, America regarded such a step as an open threat.
Bridgehead in Cuba: causes of the Cuban missile crisis.
Despite the long-standing confrontation and arms race, the deployment of missiles in Cuba was not an adventure of the Soviet government.
After the victory of Fidel Castro's revolutionary forces in Cuba in 1959, the USSR entered into close cooperation with the Cubans. This was beneficial to both sides - Cuba received the support of one of the most powerful powers in the world, and the USSR gained its first ally “on the other side of the ocean.”
Of course, this alone was enough to make the American government feel some concern.
As of the early 1960s, the United States had a serious advantage in nuclear weapons. And in 1961, American missiles with nuclear warheads were deployed in Turkey - in close proximity to the borders of the USSR.
In the event of a nuclear conflict, these missiles could even reach Moscow. According to John Kennedy, they were not much more dangerous than ballistic missiles carried on submarines.
However, medium-range missiles and intercontinental missiles differ in their approach times, and in addition, installations in Turkey were much easier to instantly bring to combat readiness.
One way or another, Khrushchev considered the American missiles on the Black Sea coast a threat. Therefore, a retaliatory step was taken - the secret movement and installation of nuclear forces in friendly Cuba, which led to Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.
Conflict resolution.
Having learned about the presence of Soviet nuclear forces in Cuba, the US leadership decided to establish a naval blockade around Cuba. True, oddly enough, there was a hitch with the legality of such an act - after all, Soviet missiles did not formally violate international law, while the introduction of a blockade was considered a direct declaration of war.
Therefore, it was decided to call the blockade a “quarantine” and cut off sea communications not entirely and completely, but only in terms of weapons.
Diplomatic negotiations, during which the whole world was in suspense, lasted a week.
As a result, the parties agreed on the following:
- The USSR withdraws its forces from Cuba;
- The US removes missiles from Turkey and abandons attempts to invade Cuba.
Results and consequences of the Caribbean crisis.
Almost causing the Third World War, he demonstrated the danger of nuclear weapons and the inadmissibility of their use in diplomatic negotiations. In 1962, the United States and the Soviet Union agreed to stop nuclear testing in the air, underwater and in space, and the Cold War began to decline.
It was also after the Cuban Missile Crisis that direct telephone communication was created between Washington and Moscow so that the leaders of the two states would no longer have to rely on letters, radio and telegraph to discuss important and urgent issues.
1) Which of the following was a consequence of the signing of the non-aggression pact with Germany in 1939? a) entry of the USSR into the League of Nations b) transfer to GermanySudetenland in Czechoslovakia c) division of spheres of influence in Eastern Europe between Germany and the USSR d) accession of the USSR to the Anti-Comintern Agreement.
2) Which of the following concepts is associated with the new economic policy?
a) concession
b) five-year plan
d) Stakhanovite
3) Which of the following events brought the world to the brink of nuclear war?
a) the introduction of Soviet troops into Czechoslovakia in 1968
b) the entry of Soviet troops into Afghanistan in 1979
c) Cuban Missile Crisis 1962
d) the Vietnam War
A-2. What event is associated with the beginning of the de-Stalinization policy? 1) XIX Congress of the CPSU 1952 2) XX Congress of the CPSU 1956 3) Worldfestival of youth and students 1957
4) N.S. Khrushchev’s visit to the exhibition in Manege in 1962.
A-3. The concept of “economic councils”, which appeared in the second half of the 1950s, was associated
1) with the consolidation of collective farms
2) with partial decentralization of economic management
3) with the development of virgin and fallow lands
4) with increased government control over the economy
A-5. Read a fragment from G.M. Malenkov’s speech at the Plenum of the CPSU Central Committee. When did these events take place?
“When we in the Presidium of the Central Committee were all convinced who we were dealing with, we convened a meeting of the Presidium of the Central Committee and, in the presence of Beria, brought charges against him. He behaved dishonestly. He could not deny the facts, but he began to cowardly and basely hide the ends, declaring that he would improve. The Presidium of the Central Committee unanimously recognized the need to act quickly and decisively, given that we are dealing with an adventurer in whose hands there are great opportunities, in order to once and for all put an end to the ulcer and rot that is poisoning the healthy atmosphere of the united and monolithic Leninist-Stalinist collective. (Stormy applause). The Presidium decided to remove Beria from his posts and expel him from the party. The Presidium came to the conclusion that it was impossible to stop halfway with such an adventurer and decided to arrest Beria as an enemy of the party and the people. (Voices. Correct! Stormy applause).”
A-6.What caused the Hungarian events of 1956?
1) worsening relations between the USSR and the USA
2) uncontrolled proliferation of nuclear weapons
3) the general crisis of the Warsaw Pact organization
4) activation of democratic forces in the countries of Eastern Europe after the death of I.V. Stalin
A-7. Which of the above provisions were contained in the report of N.S. Khrushchev at the 20th Congress of the CPSU “On the cult of personality and its consequences”?
Stalin is to blame for mass repressions
Only the KGB is to blame for the repressions
Stalin assumed sole power in the state
Stalin's associates are to blame for the repressions
innocent people arrested were tortured
Stalin acted correctly until 1936.
Please indicate the correct answer.
A-8. What was one of the manifestations of the “thaw” in the spiritual and cultural life of the USSR?
1) ending ideological pressure on cultural figures
2) abolition of state censorship
3) the opportunity to develop all areas of art
4) publication of works about Gulag prisoners
Part B
1. Place the following events in chronological order:
A) flight of Yu.A. Gagarin into space
B) holding the VI World Festival of Youth and Students in Moscow
C) suppression of workers’ protests in Novocherkassk
D) XX Congress of the CPSU
2. Establish correspondence between dates and events.
For each position in the first column, select the corresponding position in the second and write down the selected numbers in the table under the corresponding letters.
1) displacement of N.S. Khrushchev
2) launch of the first artificial Earth satellite
3) testing of the first Soviet atomic bomb
4) resolution on the magazines “Zvezda” and “Leningrad”
5) events in Novocherkassk
3. Read an excerpt from a speech by a USSR statesman and write his name.
“This report does not attempt to give a comprehensive assessment of Stalin’s life and work... Stalin’s role in the preparation and conduct of the socialist revolution, in the civil war, and in the struggle to build socialism in our country is well known. Everyone knows this well. Now we are talking about an issue of great importance both for the present and for the future of the party - we are talking about how the personality cult of Stalin gradually took shape, which at a certain stage turned into the source of a number of major and very serious distortions of party principles, party democracy, revolutionary legality. Due to the fact that not everyone still understands what the cult of personality led to in practice, what enormous damage was caused by the violation of the principle of collective leadership in the party and the concentration of immense, unlimited power in the hands of one person, the Central Committee of the Party considers it necessary to report to the 20th Congress of the Communist Party Party of the Soviet Union materials on this issue."
4. Establish a correspondence between the names of cultural figures and their areas of activity.
AREAS OF ACTIVITY
A.I. Solzhenitsyn
D.D, Shostakovich
sculpture
L.D. Landau
literature
M.K. Kalatozov
cinema
5. Which three events listed below relate to the “thaw” period in the USSR?
1) Formation of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance
2) Conclusion of the Soviet-American ABM Treaty (anti-missile defense)
3) Cuban Missile Crisis
4) Formation of the Warsaw Pact Organization
5) Beginning of the Korean War
6) Normalization of relations with Yugoslavia.
FIX IT URGENTLY PLEASE