Abnormal September: cold autumn will be replaced by Indian summer. Abnormal September: cold autumn will be replaced by Indian summer What will autumn be like?
What will the winter of 2015–2016 be like? This question is very relevant now. In anticipation of the cold season, we hope for beautiful weather for winter walks: a sunny day with light snowfall, snow caps on the trees, light frost and intricate icicles on the roofs of houses. However, this does not always happen, and it is not possible to make a prediction yourself.
For an answer to the question: when will winter 2015-2016 come and what will it be like, we decided to turn to specialists. According to weather forecasters, we can expect colder weather in mid-October, and the first to feel it will be residents of the Far East, Magadan and Irkussk regions, as well as Yakutia. In November, the cold breath of winter will already reach most of the European territory of the Russian Federation, and in some places there will already be snow.
Winter 2015-2016: forecast for December
The first winter month will begin with relatively warm weather for winter. The average daytime temperature will barely exceed -5/-10 degrees. Light rainfall is expected. The picture will be slightly spoiled by short-term wet snow and rain. But already in the second half of the month we can expect a sharp cooling down to -20. Large amounts of precipitation are unlikely, but closer to the new year you can count on light snowfalls. Thanks to stable frosty weather, the snow will not melt during the holidays, maintaining a wonderful New Year's mood.
Winter 2016: forecast for January
January promises to be the harshest of all winter months. Although the first half will follow a December weather trend, it will start with light snowfall and average temperatures of at least -15 degrees. As the second half of the month approaches, temperatures and precipitation will change dramatically. Expect heavy snowfalls followed by snowless periods with low temperatures down to -35 degrees. But such inclement weather will not last long, and by the end of the month we can expect warming to -15/-20 degrees, which will be accompanied by light precipitation. The weather will be sunny.
Winter 2016: forecast for February
The last winter month will also “delight” with its impermanence. At first you should expect pleasant winter weather. Several frosty but sunny days. Precipitation will be light, but there will be occasional wet snow. The average daily temperature will not drop below -10 degrees. True, such ideal winter weather will last no longer than a week and by the middle of the month you can forget about warming. It will be replaced by a sharp cold snap again. Thermometers will drop to -25/-30 degrees. Although large amounts of precipitation are not expected, light snowfalls will still cover the roads for a couple of days.
Winter 2015 – 2016 will bring many surprises in terms of weather changes. Temperature changes will be seriously noticeable, but throughout the entire winter season the amount of snow will not interfere with the movement of vehicles on highways. The winter will be quite harsh, but it will not forget to periodically delight us with warm and sunny days.
Weather is a very unpredictable phenomenon. And if you believe the weather forecasters, the winter will be quite cold. Naturally, it is too early to give definite forecasts, but we will try to find out the approximate temperatures that await us.
According to research by Japanese scientist Mototaka Nakamura, the northern hemisphere of our planet is in the final stages of global warming, which began back in 1980. In 2015 A strong drop in temperature and heavy precipitation in the form of snow is expected. A paradox arises - summers are getting hotter and longer, and winters are getting colder. Russian scientists also confirm the Japanese’s conclusions. Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere will increase markedly. True, these indicators are affected by the amount of greenhouse gases that will accumulate in the atmosphere. And if developed countries do not take care of this problem, nature will give us even bigger surprises.
What kind of winter awaits us in 2015?
According to the Hydrometeorological Center, winter will be changeable. You shouldn't expect any sudden changes, but some instability is quite possible. Remembering past years, it’s worth getting used to such weather conditions. Forecasters promise that the most severe frosts will occur in the second half of winter - late January, early February. Comfortable weather (about -5 degrees) and large amounts of precipitation await us for the New Year. Snowfalls will begin just during this period. Some even fear that precipitation will be too heavy and may exceed twice its normal level.
Residents of distant Yakutia will be the first to experience the “delights” of winter. Frosts will come to them already in October. Also, residents of the Far East and the Magadan region should not relax. Many cyclones, heavy rainfall and frequent weather changes are expected. Forecasters called the Central regions the warmest region. Comfortable weather is expected in this area, perhaps a little warmer than usual. In general, we people, accustomed to the vagaries of the weather, now need to decide whether to stock up on felt boots, galoshes or snowshoes.
Folk signs about the weather in winter
- Scientists have found that by the color of the caterpillars of bear butterflies, one can determine how severe the next winter will be. If black color predominates over orange, then 80% of the fact that severe cold awaits us.
- You can tell about the coming winter by the fur of your pets. If their fur becomes very dense before the start of the cold season, it means their body is preparing for the cold.
- Before serious temperature changes, animals begin to stockpile large quantities of supplies.
- You can predict the weather by looking at acorn shells. The thicker their shell, the colder it will be. The husks of onions and the outer leaves of corn change according to the same principle.
- If birds fly away ahead of time to warmer climes, this is a good reason to think that winter is very close and will come earlier than usual.
The weather in early September surprised the residents of Tatarstan. After hot sunny days, a sharp cold snap set in. But don't despair, warmer weather is just around the corner.
Back on Saturday, September 2, it was real summer in Tatarstan; the air warmed up to 26 degrees during the day. The sharp cooling in the evening of August 3 was very noticeable. The republic was invaded by cold Arctic air in the rear of the cyclone. The temperature dropped to 9 degrees at night and 12-14 degrees during the day. Experts note that autumn begins when the average daily temperature drops below 15 degrees. It's cloudy and cold outside now. Such weather at the very beginning of autumn is considered abnormal.
According to the forecast of Hydromet of Russia, the average temperature in September in Tatarstan is expected to be 1 degree above the climate norm. The norm in the republic is 11 degrees with a plus sign. Monthly precipitation is forecast to be below the long-term average with a normal of 52 mm. At the same time, in the first ten days of September the temperature is expected to be 1.5 degrees above the climate norm,” Irina Trushchina, head of the meteorological forecast department of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Republic of Tatarstan, told Tatar-inform news agency.
Waves of heat and cold
The weather is currently unstable, with alternating cyclones and anticyclones. Over the next three days the air will gradually warm up; no significant precipitation is expected. The republic will be under the influence of the ridge of the northern anticyclone. But by the end of the week the weather will deteriorate again and rain will come. An extended period of partly cloudy warm weather is not expected this week.
“The cool weather will last for two or three days, and then the air will gradually warm up. Warming will begin on September 7; the thermometer during the day may rise to 19-20 degrees. In September there will be both heat waves and cold waves. Now we are experiencing a cold wave,” said Yuri Perevedentsev, head of the department of meteorology, climatology and atmospheric ecology at the Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management of KFU.
The whims of Indian summer
Indian summer is a period when dry, sunny weather sets in after rain and bad weather. It is worth noting that this does not happen every year. Thus, in 2000 and 2016, it was not present on the territory of the republic at all. Last year, after a hot August, September turned out to be cold and rainy. Then there was only one “Indian” day - September 25, when the air temperature warmed up to 21.5 degrees, and there was no rain. In 2007, September was cold; the warm period began on September 28 and lasted only two days. Sometimes Indian summer lasts 2.5 weeks.
Indian summer will be in the second half of September. Let's hope it lasts a week. If there is an anticyclone and southern winds, the temperature may exceed 20 degrees. Over the past 17 years, there has been no Indian summer for two years. Therefore, there is a high probability that it will happen this year,” says Yuri Perevedentsev.
On average, Indian summer lasts 1–1.5 weeks. In 2008 it lasted for six days and the average daily temperature was 19 degrees. In 2015, “Indian summer” lasted from September 13 to September 29 – 17 days, and the average daily temperature was 18.5 degrees. This is quite a high temperature for September, forecasters say.
When is the heating season
The heating season begins when the average daily air temperature drops below 8 degrees Celsius. Usually the heat in houses is turned on in the second half of September. First, it is given to kindergartens, hospitals and schools. There is no weather forecast for the upcoming heating season – October and November. It will appear at the end of September.
Discuss()
Meteorologists use scientific methods to make their forecasts.
The scientific approach obliges us to look at things from a different perspective. Do meteorologists believe in folk omens? Of course not. After all, in fact, it is impossible to predict the future by signs. They tell about the past and about the trends that have developed in the weather and nature at this moment. In this sense, the so-called phenological signs - about the behavior of animals and plants - are valuable.
There are many interesting folk signs for autumn. One of the most curious signs of September: if the leaves on a birch tree begin to turn yellow from the top, expect a cold autumn and winter, and if from below, then autumn will be late and warm.
This sign has a scientific explanation.
Trees begin to turn yellow when the average daily temperature drops below + 16°. Under such conditions, chlorophyll ceases to be produced in the leaves, and yellow pigments - carotenoids - appear. Thus, the yellowing of the leaves illustrates the change in temperature with altitude. If the leaves turn yellow at the bottom of the tree, it means that at night there is a strong cooling at the surface of the earth, characteristic of anticyclonic weather. During the day in such conditions, on the contrary, it is warm. And, if an anticyclone sets in in the fall, it will most likely last for a long time. But if the top of a birch tree has turned yellow, the air above is colder than below. This most often occurs during the invasion of cold air masses, which usually bring stormy cyclones.
Spiders can also give their forecast. There is such a sign: if in September there are a lot of cobwebs in the forest, and they are woven into balls, it means a cold autumn, but if the cobwebs are sparse, stretched across the grass, it means it will be warm. Entomologists, by the way, are sure that spiders are real weather forecasters: if bad weather, rain, cold, precipitation is expected, spiders do not build their webs or repair them, they understand this by some changes in atmospheric pressure, but exactly how is not known . Thick balls of cobwebs on grass and bushes appear in bad weather. These are insulated cocoons - shelters. Animals build them, anticipating bad weather, 2-3 days in advance.
Our ancestors believed that moles could also predict the weather. If the entrance to the wormhole is located to the north, then autumn and winter will be warm, and if to the south, then it will be cold. This behavior of animals is explained simply. When, at the end of summer, moles experience a lack of heat, they strive to exit the hole to the warm southern side. And vice versa, if the hole is too hot, they make an exit to the north.
Observe these phenomena in your region and make your own forecast for the fall!
Folk signs for autumn. Autumn proverbs and sayings.
Autumn signs.
There are a lot of rowan trees in the forest - autumn will be rainy, but few - dry.
If the cranes fly high, slowly and “talk,” it will be a good autumn.
Until the leaves fall from the cherries, no matter how much snow falls, the thaw will drive it away.
Clouds are rare - it will be clear and cold.
If there are a lot of nuts but no mushrooms, the winter will be snowy and harsh.
If birch trees turn yellow from the top in autumn, next spring will be early, and if from below, then late.
Signs and sayings of September.
In September, hold on tight to your caftan.
In September it is nicer during the day, but bad in the morning.
In September, even the leaves on the tree do not stick.
In September, summer ends and autumn begins.
In September there is only one berry, and that one is a bitter rowan.
In September, the tit asks autumn to visit.
Thunder in September - for a long autumn.
Thunder in September foreshadows a warm autumn.
A lot of shading in the Indian summer - for a clear autumn and cold winter.
There is no September without fruits.
September is the evening of the year.
September takes the caftan off his shoulder and puts on a sheepskin coat.
September sees off the red summer, welcomes the golden autumn.
September is deciduous.
September has turned the swamps purple - frosted oats are being threshed.
September sent the birds on the road.
September is gloomy.
September 11 - Lenten Ivan, godfather of autumn. A man does not leave Lenten Ivan without a caftan.
September 13 - Kupriyanov day - crane flight. They pull root vegetables (except turnips), dig potatoes.
September 14 - Semyon - flight guide. First meeting of autumn. Completion of summer work. If the first day of Indian summer is clear, then autumn will be warm.
September 27 - Exaltation, the third meeting of autumn. First winters. On Vozdvizhenie the first lady is cabbage (cabbage is cut down).
Signs and sayings of October.
An October day is quickly melting - you can’t tie it to the fence.
In October, before lunch it is autumn, and after lunch it is winter.
In October, winter is removed from the white nest, and she dresses up to visit a peasant: “Let me spend some time in Rus', visit villages and eat pies.”
In October there is a hut with firewood, and a man in bast shoes, but still no spores.
In October it rains and snows at the same hour.
In October, neither on wheels nor on a sleigh.
October rides a piebald mare: she loves neither the wheels nor the runner.
In October, say goodbye to the sun, get closer to the stove.
Thunder in October foreshadows a snowless, short and mild winter.
If the leaves of birch and oak do not fall cleanly in October, expect a harsh winter.
Know autumn in October by mud.
October is crowned with white snow and great mud.
October is winter.
October will cover the earth with leaves and snow here and there.
October is a mess.
In October, before lunch it is autumn, and in the afternoon it is winter-winter.
If in October a leaf from a birch or oak falls uncleanly, expect a harsh winter.
The moon has turned red - wait for the wind to blow.
Autumn frost - to dry, sunny weather.
If there are a lot of nuts and few mushrooms, the winter will be harsh.
October 1 is Arin's day. If the cranes fly to Arina, then on Pokrov (October 14) we must wait for the first frost; and if they are not visible on this day, not a single frost will hit before Artemyev’s Day (November 2).
October 3 - Astafieva winds. If the northern, angry wind blows, there will be cold, the southern wind blows - towards warmth, the western - towards phlegm, the eastern - towards a bucket.
October 8 - cabbage is chopped on Sergius. If the first snow falls on St. Sergius, then winter will set in on Michaelmas Day (November 21).
October 9 - rain and snow - in January expect strong thaws three times, sunny and warm - June will be rainy and cold.
October 14 - Intercession Day. On Pokrov it is autumn before lunch, and after lunch it is winter-winter. On Pokrov, heat a hut without firewood (insulate your home).
As is the Veil, so is winter.
October 20 - Sergius. If Sergius is covered with snow, then from the November Matryona winter will rise to its feet.
October 21 - from Tryphon - Palagei it’s getting colder. Trifon is mending a fur coat, Palageya is sewing sheep mittens.
Signs and sayings of November.
In November, winter fights with autumn.
In November, autumn - the fat woman fights with the feisty one - in winter.
In November the frost subsides.
In November, the first lasting snow falls overnight.
In November, dawn meets dusk in the middle of the day...
In November, the sun smiles through tears and “white flies”.
In November, it may rain in the morning, and by the evening the snow may lie in drifts.
In November, warmth and frost are not a decree.
If the sky cries in November, then winter will follow the rain.
Mosquitoes in November - be a mild winter.
Whoever does not feel cold in November will not freeze in December.
November's forge is small, but it forges fetters for all the rivers.
The river cannot be bound in winter without November, the blacksmith.
It's no wonder there are white flies (snow) in November.
November, December, brother, September, grandson.
November is an off-road: now snow, now mud, now mud, now snow - neither the wheel nor the runner can move.
In November there will be snow and bread will arrive.
November - leafy.
November - September's grandson, October's son, winter's dear father. November semi-winter road: a man says goodbye to a cart and climbs into a sleigh. November nights are dark before the snow.
November 4 - Kazan. Before Kazanskaya it is not winter, from Kazanskaya it is not autumn. It happens that it rains on Kazanskaya in the morning, and in the evening the snow lies in drifts.
November 12 - Zinovia - titmouse holiday. The feathered guests of winter flock: bullfinches, goldfinches, waxwings... November 14 - Kuzminki, meeting winter. The river cannot be chained to winter without Kuzma-Demyan.
November 21 - Michaelmas Day. If Mikhailo Demyanov destroys the path, do not wait until the winter St. Nicholas (December 19). If there is frost on Michaelmas Day, expect heavy snow, and if the day begins with fog, it will thaw.
November 25 - Studit will become cold and angry. If it rains or snows on the 25th, according to ancient signs, there will be a thaw before the Introduction (December 4).
People's forecast for the whole autumn.
Honey mushrooms have appeared - summer is over.
If the meadows are entangled with nettleweed, geese walk in herds, starlings do not fly away for a long time, and hares do not turn white for a long time, then the autumn will be long and windy.
Autumn will be warm if pansies, buttercups, daisies, yarrow, and clover bloom until late summer.
Thunder in September foreshadows a warm autumn.
Swans fly south late - autumn will be long and warm.
If birds stay in their native lands longer than usual, then the cold will not come soon.
If the duck is still sitting on the water and does not fly away even in cold rain, then the good weather will continue for a long time.
Late flowering of rowan - for a long autumn.
When there are few rowan trees in the forest, the autumn will be dry, and when there are many, it will be rainy.
“All weather is grace” - perhaps not everyone will agree with the lines of the famous song. What will winter 2015-2016 be like in Russia? Severe frosts and piercing winds, familiar to most Russians, make us look forward to the coming winter of 2015-2016 with trepidation, because in the fall weather forecasters promised us unprecedented cold for the coming months. But is this true? The above-zero temperature, firmly established in most of our country, casts doubt on those terrifying forecasts. So what can we expect from the next three months? What kind of winter will it be in Russia in 2016?
European part
The beginning of December showed that the severe cold, generously promised by some weather forecasters in the fall, was no longer out of the question. The Phobos Weather Center, known for its accurate data, has offered its weather forecast for the European part of Russia. So, what kind of winter will it be like in 2016 in this region of the country?
As you know, the coldest areas of the region are located in the northeast. The average temperature this winter in the northeastern and northern regions will remain at minus 15 degrees, in some places - minus 20. The opposite will be the Kuban and the Caucasus - the warmest regions of the European part. For most of the winter, above-zero temperatures are predicted in these regions.
Abnormal warmth will continue across most of the Russian Plain. On some days in December the temperature will be 10 degrees above average - up to plus 7 degrees Celsius. However, in the lower parts of the Volga and Don, winter will be slightly colder than usual - about 1-2 degrees below normal.
Central part
The winter of 2015-2016 began with a thaw: December started with above-zero temperatures throughout almost the entire territory of the Central part of Russia. The frosts, having never really begun, decisively left this region of the country, thereby ensuring above-zero temperatures in many cities, including Moscow.
If we believe the forecasts for the winter of 2015-2016, December will be an abnormally warm month, and only by the new year the weather will please us with snow and light frost. January will be marked by moderate frosts with average temperatures 2-3 degrees above normal. And only February, according to weather forecasters from the Phobos Weather Center, will become a truly winter month: frosty and snowy.
Siberia and the Urals
What will the winter of 2015-2016 be like in Siberia and the Urals? The answer to this question is ready to be given by the Phobos Weather Center, which recently published the findings of its own experts in an online publication.
The main rule of Siberian weather is that the further east you go, the colder it gets. And the further the territory is located from the central part of the country, the stronger the frost is expected. Thus, in Transbaikalia the expected average temperature ranges from minus 30 to minus 35 degrees Celsius. According to weather forecasters, the coming winter will be warmer than usual at the “Siberian pole of cold” - in the lower reaches of the Yenisei. There, the average daily temperature will be between 27-35 below zero - and this is 5-7 degrees warmer than usual! The weather in Southern Siberia will also be warm - the expected temperature in this region is about 2 degrees above the average. The southwest will also experience the effects of global warming - contrary to usual, the temperature will be 3-4 degrees higher than usual.
Residents of the Urals need not fear severe frosts - the warm Atlantic cyclone, under the influence of which the forecast for the winter of 2015-2016 is being made, will bring warm air. Thanks to these air masses, the climate of the Urals in the next three months will be equal in weighted average temperature to the Central region.
Conclusions
According to weather forecasters, the weather in most of Russia - with the exception of Siberia and the Far East - is made by warm air from the Atlantic. Passing through European territories, the air masses cool down, bringing to us only the remnants of the former warmth, but this is enough to create a more benign climate in the winter months. It was the Atlantic cyclone that brought us the anomalous warmth that is currently affecting most of the country. And it is to him that we should be grateful for the coming snowfalls, the formation of which has already begun in European territories. And, to be honest, this cannot but please us - what would a Russian winter be without snow?