Abnormal cold or warmth: What will the coming winter be like? Abnormal cold or warmth: What will the coming winter be like? There is one “but”
Winter has not yet really begun, but a large-scale energy emergency has already happened in Ukraine. The cold weather arrived, and almost two dozen cities in the country found themselves without gas and heating. We are mainly talking about regional centers - cities with 50-100 thousand people, but the biggest problems are in the industrial center of Krivoy Rog. The city stands out from the crowd in terms of the number of people who freeze, its size (630 thousand people) and the scale of events. If before this Ukraine had known food riots, then the first cold one happened in Krivoy Rog. Izvestia looked into why the cold became a problem for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians.
Warmth everyone!
There have always been certain difficulties with organizing the heating season in Krivoy Rog. There are several important reasons for this. The large industrial center Krivoy Rog is the longest city in Ukraine, 126 km from the southwestern to the northeastern outskirts. One enterprise is simply not able to supply heat over such distances; the city is heated by several structures at once, but even this does not save. Now in Ukraine it’s hard for everyone to pay gas bills, but in Krivoy Rog, including due to high costs for infrastructure, the tariff for the population turned out to be exorbitant.
“Shepherds, Vasilkov, Shepetovka... Already now the heating tariff there is off the charts - up to 50 hryvnia per square meter (121 rubles, in Kyiv the tariff is one and a half times lower. - Izvestia), and, for example, in Krivoy Rog and altogether 70 hryvnia (170 rubles - Izvestia). And then it will be even more expensive (after gas rises in price again in May 2019 and January 2020 - Izvestia),” former Minister of Housing and Communal Services Alexey Kucherenko explained the price order in a commentary to Strana.ua.
The second problem directly follows from the first. Due to the fact that the cost of heating here is more than twice the capital’s, residents have accumulated large debts to the Krivoy Rog Thermal Power Plant. As a result, Naftogaz of Ukraine set a strict condition: the city will receive nominations (confirmation of the supply of gas volumes and permission to take it out) only when it covers this debt. As a result, as reported by city authorities, as of November 10, 2,011 houses, 78 schools, 75 kindergartens, 22 hospitals, 30 social and cultural facilities (including the Rehabilitation Center for Children with Disabilities and an orphanage) remained without heat in Krivoy Rog. The ultimatum expired on November 11, and the debt had not been repaid by that date. Therefore, it was on this day that it exploded - Naftogaz of Ukraine ordered Krivorozhgaz to suspend the supply of gas even to those few boiler houses that by that time were working, heating hospitals and maternity hospitals.
Took by force
Today the situation in Krivoy Rog is called a “gas riot,” which is a little wrong. The Krivorozhskaya CHPP was the first to refuse to comply, launching some of the power units in violation of the instructions of Krivorozhgaz. And in fact, starting the unauthorized extraction of gas from the pipe.
“As soon as Naftogaz allows gas supply, the Krivoy Rog Heating Plant will be connected. So far, the two state-owned enterprises cannot agree. “Krivorozhgaz is not a party to the conflict or negotiations,” the company’s press service tried to distance itself. But, apparently, the decisive role was played by the comment of one of the representatives of the thermal power plant on November 11. They say that we have partially switched on, but the gas workers can cut off our gas at any moment.
Therefore, on the morning of November 12, Krivorozhgaz was simply taken by storm. Everything was as it should be, in the best traditions of Euromaidan - with burning tires and a power entrance. First, a group of negotiators entered the enterprise, presenting the management with a court decision prohibiting them from blocking gas supplies to the city (judges are also people and they also freeze). There they once again nodded to their status as performers and demanded payment guarantees from the city, without listening to completely logical arguments: if frosts suddenly hit, then Alchevsk will repeat in Krivoy Rog (in the winter of 2006, due to an accident, the heating in Alchevsk, Lugansk region, had to be turned off, because - why the water in the heating system froze and the system completely failed - Izvestia). The only difference is that the population of Alchevsk is six times smaller, not to mention the size of the city.
When the arguments had no effect, the negotiators turned to threats: “If there is no heat from the fifth boiler house, people will warm themselves in this building until the heating turns on. We’ll go in through the doors, through the windows, whatever you want, and your guards won’t stop us. We have our own normal guys standing a little further away. We'll burn the tires. Not the best decision, I understand, but this is not to scare you, but so that the whole country can see what is going on in Krivoy Rog,” the Ukrainian Komsomolskaya Pravda quotes a representative of the Krivbass volunteer battalion.
Well, actually, we came in. Already in the afternoon, the boiler rooms were turned on at full capacity, without waiting for the local thermal power plant and Naftogaz to resolve all controversial issues. True, it hasn’t gotten any warmer yet: according to testimonies from townspeople, the radiators in the houses of local residents are barely warm. The director of the city’s infrastructure development department, Ivan Kary, explains: heating is a difficult and slow process. The houses had already cooled down. And now it will take 2-3 weeks to warm them up. This can be accelerated only on an individual basis - by additionally warming up the apartments with heaters.
Naftogaz points out that the matter is not only about debts: “... the enterprise (Krivoy Rog Thermal Power Plant - Izvestia) is officially in the process of bankruptcy proceedings, and the arbitration manager must give consent in order to conclude these agreements.” We are talking about gas supply contracts. And they can only be concluded by paying off debts or at least agreeing on a payment schedule with Naftogaz. And since the thermal power plants are going bankrupt, then what kind of calculations and schedules are there? In general, it’s a vicious circle and the city of 600,000 is essentially held hostage.
Pro-government media defend the version of a planned riot by the city authorities. The fact is that the mayor of Krivoy Rog is named Yuri Vilkul - he is the father of Alexander Vilkul, one of the contenders for nomination as a presidential candidate from the United Opposition (formerly the Party of Regions). But Krivorozhgaz (and therefore Naftogaz) may not fare well either: the National Police of Ukraine has already opened criminal proceedings regarding the lack of heat in the city. The police are freezing too.
“Don’t drown” as the norm
The scandal in Krivoy Rog was the loudest, and the media today write mainly about it for all the reasons listed above: the size of the city, the assault, the connection with the elections. However, in fact, Krivoy Rog is an absolutely ordinary case in recent days.
On November 12, the city council of 80,000 people in Smila (Cherkasy region) declared a state of emergency. Everything is standard: without heat, not only residential areas, but also kindergartens and hospitals. And not only a Kievite, but also a resident of Krivoy Rog will faint from the tariff: 86 hryvnia per square meter (208 rubles - Izvestia), which ultimately gives more than 9,500 rubles for heating a two-room Khrushchev house. Only schoolchildren are happy - they were transferred to distance learning before the start of the heating season.
Shepetivka (Khmelnitsky region) - the same as a carbon copy. In Pavlograd (Dnepropetrovsk region), the heating season finally began on November 13 - they were able to borrow money from the region and pay off with Naftogaz. In Kherson, the situation is slightly different: there, mostly kindergartens and schools were left without heating.
True, there are also urban-type settlements and villages. There is no central heating - each house has its own stove or boiler. But there are schools and kindergartens. And it's cold there. Activist Ruslan Bizyaev writes about one such village on Facebook: “Tomorrow classes at school will resume in the form of individual and group consultations (lessons of 10 minutes). Dress your children very warmly, in class +6,” he quotes an announcement from a school in the urban-type village of Gvardeyskoye, Dnepropetrovsk region. No one can say how many such villages and towns there are throughout Ukraine.
Why assaults are useless
It is noteworthy that it makes no sense to storm gas institutions. Regional gas companies and city gas companies are really just performers, the so-called gas distribution network operators (GDS). They themselves do not trade gas, but only manage local gas pipelines. Their task is to supply gas to those who produce heat for the city. And this gas can be purchased either from Naftogaz or from a private supplier.
Since about 2015, Naftogaz has refused to sell gas to cities until they pay off their debts for the previous season. That is, problems with the beginning of the heating season have happened before, but the situation across the country became critical only this year. Firstly, debts have grown to such levels that cities can no longer borrow from the region. Secondly, this year for the first time Naftogaz received the official right to refuse gas supplies to debtors. GDS operators receive orders: do not turn on gas to the city, seal the valves. And they cannot fail to execute this command.
In this situation, the city has two options. You can take the gas by force. Or you can give up on Naftogaz and buy from someone else. But in reality, both will lead to nothing.
“As a result, Krivorozhgaz will not serve the city, emergency services are not working, since the enterprise is blocked,” recalls Dmitry Marunich, co-founder of the Institute of Energy Strategies. And non-functioning emergency services at the beginning of the season are actually a death sentence. Worn out pipes cannot withstand the pressure and break, but now there will be no one to repair them.
The second method is also ineffective. Other suppliers sell gas for 11.5–12 thousand hryvnia (29 thousand rubles - Izvestia) per thousand cubic meters, they do not have benefits for the population. This is precisely why the receipts of residents of Krivoy Rog and Smila have such cosmic numbers, writes economic journalist Alexander Dubinsky on Facebook. And if in past years it was difficult for residents of these cities to pay even at the “preferential” prices of Naftogaz, then what can we say about the market prices. For example, as noted above, only for heating a two-room Khrushchev house with an area of 46 square meters. m in Smela at a rate of 86 hryvnia per square meter you will have to pay almost 9,600 rubles. This is almost equal to the minimum wage and 1.7 times the average pension.
“We definitely need to sit down at the negotiating table with problem cities, perhaps give them subventions from the government, some guarantees of payment to Naftogaz (this is problematic, Naftogaz is already suing the government over 6.6 billion hryvnia in compensation for gas supplies to the population. - Izvestia). That is, it is necessary to solve the problem here and now, to give people warmth. And then think about how to change the existing order in which Naftogaz can simply deny gas to dozens of cities. Debts also arise for various reasons; in the same Smila, millions of hryvnias paid by townspeople for heat last season were simply stolen. In addition, the main debtors are not Smela and Krivoy Rog. The same Kyiv owes more than two billion hryvnia, Odessa - more than 1 billion hryvnia, Lvov and Kharkov - 629 million hryvnia each, and so on. But unlike the regional centers, they will not be switched off, because this is a death sentence for the authorities,” Dmitry Marunich tells Izvestia.
There are many to blame, but there is no one to ask
Figuring out who is to blame for the current situation is even more difficult. This is the Naftogaz company - a state-owned company and a (virtual) monopolist, at least for the population. But it behaves like an ordinary commercial structure. Top management receives huge bonuses based on profits. For the sake of profit, the management did not even stop at ruining relations with Gazprom forever. What can we say about cutting off gas to several hundred thousand Ukrainians?
But on the other hand, these are also heat supply companies. There are 11 thousand houses in Kyiv and everyone has a house heat meter. You can immediately see who paid and how much, making it easier to deal with debts. In the regions, such companies have worse accounting - it’s easier to “tighten” the tariff in their favor.
This is the government - there’s a bunch of questions right away, a lot has accumulated over 4.5 years. There is also a quarrel with Gazprom, because of which Naftogaz now buys fuel at a European markup, and the population is forced to pay for it. And in general, damaged relations with the Russian Federation, which led to losses in markets, a shortage of foreign exchange reserves and the need to go into bondage with the IMF. Finally, the government simply deceives people with subsidies. Three years ago, when the price of gas increased for the first time, subsidies were promised to everyone whose utility costs were above a certain percentage of income. But now it has been surrounded by so many reservations and conditions that even the poorest people cannot always get it. And for 2019, the government decided to allocate only 50 billion hryvnia for subsidies (70 billion in 2018), although experts warned that with new gas prices at least 90 billion would be needed.
That is, there are many to blame, which means that no one is personally to blame for the current situation. But in the end, with the exception of large megacities (and even then with certain reservations), a resident of any city in Ukraine could take the place of the residents of Krivoy Rog or Smila.
May is the traditional time for dacha work, picnics and nature trips. Indeed, in the midst of spring, you can endlessly enjoy the blossoming trees and the unique aroma of freshness. As a rule, by this time the weather is pleasant with almost summer warmth, which promotes long walks in the fresh air.
So, what will the weather be like in Moscow in May 2018? Read the most accurate forecast from the Hydrometeorological Center for the beginning, middle and end of May 2018 for residents of Moscow and the Moscow region. If you have planned a trip to the capital city at the end of spring, it is best to familiarize yourself in advance with weather forecasts for this period.
Weather in Moscow for May 2018 – the most accurate weather forecast
With the onset of May, nature generously shares its brightest colors - as if rewarding people for waiting so long for warmth. Thus, under the influence of spring breath, Moscow is literally transformed, attracting attention with flowering flower beds, trees and a unique, special atmosphere. So, what weather is expected in Moscow in May 2018? We offer the most accurate weather forecast for the capital region - in general, the May weather will delight Muscovites and guests with warm, fine days.
Weather forecast for the beginning and end of May - 2018 for Moscow
The ancient name for May is “pollen” or “grass”. Indeed, this month the weather most often does not present temperature “surprises” in the form of frosts or abnormal heat. True, the beginning of May 2018 will be relatively cool - the thermometer is unlikely to rise above 15 - 18 degrees with a “+” sign. In addition, Muscovites will face rainy and windy weather - however, from the middle of the month the temperature indicators will inexorably creep up, stopping at +20 - 22 degrees. According to weather forecasters, in mid-May Moscow will experience relatively dry weather during the day, and the night air will be cool and fresh. At the end of the month, weather conditions will improve significantly - the temperature will rise to +25 degrees, and light precipitation is possible at night.
Weather in Moscow in May 2018 – forecast of the Hydrometeorological Center
For Moscow residents, May weather will be a real “gift”, pleasant and long-awaited. Thus, owners of dachas and garden plots can confidently plan preparations for the upcoming sowing season - in May they will have an excellent opportunity to devote themselves to their favorite business. Let's take a closer look at the weather forecast of the Hydrometeorological Center for May 2018 in Moscow.
What is the expected weather for Moscow according to the forecast of the Hydrometeorological Center for May - 2018
According to forecasts from the Hydrometeorological Center, by the end of the month the average daily temperature will be about 20 degrees with a “+” sign. And although there may be a slight decrease in indicators in the evening and at night, in general the weather will remain warm, conducive to romantic walks. May is characterized by an increase in daylight hours to 15–17 hours. In the middle of the month, weather forecasters predict short-term precipitation in the form of showers for Moscow, which will soon be replaced by warm sunny weather.
Weather in the Moscow region in May 2018
As in the capital, the weather for May in the Moscow region is expected to be warm - the average temperature will be +16 degrees. At the beginning of the month, rain and showers are possible, but the end of May will delight you with almost summer weather.
So, what will the weather be like in Moscow in May 2018? We offer for study the most accurate forecasts of the Hydrometeorological Center for the capital and the Moscow region for the beginning, middle and end of May 2018. Let the weather surprises only please you, and the spring May Moscow inspire new life achievements and changes for the better!
We have very specific feelings associated with these terms. Practically, without doubt, any of us can give a completely unambiguous assessment of whether he is warm or cold. But at the same time, it doesn’t take much observation to notice that this assessment is very subjective. The same temperature conditions are assessed differently by different people. Even the same person, but at different times, sometimes gives different assessments of the same environmental temperature conditions.
Since our body is a wonderful thermostat, that is, it maintains its temperature within very limited limits, it is in order to maintain this constancy that the processes of heat production and heat transfer must change depending on the ambient temperature and other conditions affecting the state of heat balance. And it should be noted that these thermostatic mechanisms work great. Not without the help, of course, of technical devices (clothing and some others), but the body temperature remains constant (+35...+37 degrees Celsius) when the external temperature fluctuates in the range of more than 100 degrees Celsius. It is clear that such perfect regulation of the constancy of body temperature is possible only with the ability to very subtly detect fluctuations in ambient temperature.
This ability, that is, the ability to perceive the parameters of the thermal environment, to form the corresponding subjective sensations and thermoregulatory reactions, is carried out thanks to a very well developed fine temperature sensitivity.
The temperature sensory system is usually considered part of the skin analyzer, and for good reason. First, the receptors of this afferent system are located in the skin. Secondly, as many studies show, they cannot be separated from tactile receptors. And thirdly, the pathways and centers of tactile and temperature sensitivity also significantly coincide. However, this does not mean at all that there are similarities in sensations. Not at all, tactile and temperature sensitivity are quite clearly distinguished subjectively, as well as according to some objective indicators - conditioned reflex and electrophysiological.
At the end of the last century, the existence of areas in the skin that are selectively sensitive to the effects of heat and cold was very convincingly demonstrated. They are located very unevenly. Most of them are on the face, especially on the lips and eyelids. And this feature of localization is inherent not only to humans, but also to many animals, also extending to a certain extent to tactile sensitivity. Scientists believe that the high sensitivity of skin receptors in the facial part of the head should be related to the general phylogenetic course of development of the head end of the body and the corresponding neuro-reflex apparatus.
Special studies have found that the total number of cold points on the entire surface of the body is about 250 thousand, and the number of heat points is only 30 thousand. It is not so easy to establish which receptors perceive temperature stimuli, because the skin has many sensitive elements, the irritation of which leads to sensations of touch, pressure and even pain. Studying the reaction time to thermal and cold influences and comparing the data obtained with the thermal conductivity of the skin led to the conclusion that thermal receptors lie at a depth of about 0.3 millimeters, and cold receptors - 0.17 millimeters. These calculated values turned out to be in very good agreement with the average depth of nerve endings such as Ruffini bodies and Krause end flasks. That is why it is widely believed that they are temperature receptors. Moreover, it has been shown that irritation of Ruffini's corpuscles leads to a sensation of warmth, and Krause's flasks - cold. At the same time, it was found that areas of the skin in which only free nerve endings were located were also sensitive to temperature effects.
More clear are the facts obtained from electrophysiological studies of nerve fibers carrying afferent impulses from temperature receptors. And by the nature of this impulse one can indirectly judge the properties of the receptors. In particular, it turned out that in a state of temperature equilibrium, that is, at a stable temperature, thermoreceptors send their discharges with a certain constant frequency depending on the absolute temperature. At the same time, fibers that respond to temperature changes in the range from +20 to +50 degrees Celsius are associated with thermal sensations. Their maximum impulse frequency is observed at +38...+43 degrees Celsius. Cold fibers “work” at a temperature of +10...+41 degrees Celsius with a maximum at +15...+34 degrees.
It should be noted that both cold and heat receptor structures adapt very poorly. This means that with prolonged exposure to a constant temperature, or more precisely, with a constant temperature of the receptors themselves, the frequency of the impulses they send remains unchanged. It is even possible to detect a functional relationship between these two indicators - temperature and impulse. This implies a very important position for understanding the physiology of thermoregulation - heat and cold receptors are sensors of absolute temperature, and not of its relative changes. However, everyone knows well that judging by our sensations, we perceive relative temperature changes much better. And this indicates more complex neurophysiological mechanisms of sensation compared to the receptor act.
Human thermal sensations cover the entire gamut of shades from the neutral zone through “slightly cool” to “cold” and “unbearably cold.” And in the other direction - through “warm”, “warm” to “hot” or “hot”. In this case, extreme sensations of both cold and heat without a sharp boundary turn into a sensation of pain.
The basis for the formation of sensations, naturally, are the parameters of afferent impulses coming to the central nervous system from heat and cold receptors. In general, this dependence can be represented in such a way that increased impulses from thermal receptors and weakening from cold ones give a feeling of warmth, and increased impulses from cold fibers and weakening from thermal fibers give a feeling of cold. However, special psychophysiological experiments show that the ability to sense temperature depends on several factors: absolute intradermal temperature, the rate of its change, the area under study, its area, the duration of temperature exposure, and others. It is clear that the combination of these factors can be very diverse. And hence the thermosensitive sensations of a person are incomparably richer than the afferentation sent by a single thermoreceptor. In the higher centers there is an integration of signals coming from a large number of both thermal and cold receptors.
Temperature sensitivity is characterized by well-defined adaptation. Compare: at the receptor level there is practically no adaptation. We encounter this psychophysiological feature every day. Water that seems hot to us at first when we hold our hand or foot in it, after some time, just a few minutes, becomes much “cooler,” although its temperature remains almost unchanged. Remember, when on a hot summer day you enter the water of a river, lake, or sea, the first feeling of “cold” quickly gives way to “slightly cool” or even neutral.
Close in its mechanisms to adaptation is temperature contrast, which we also encounter very often. Let's make a very simple but quite convincing experiment. Let's fill three cylinders with water of different temperatures. Place your left hand in a vessel where the water temperature is 20 degrees Celsius, and your right hand in a vessel with a water temperature of 40 degrees Celsius. Our sensations will be completely clear: on the left - “cool”, on the right - “warm”. After 2-3 minutes, place both hands in a cylinder of water at a temperature of 30 degrees Celsius. Now the left hand will be “warm” and the right hand will be “cold”. However, very soon, after a few tens of seconds, the sensations level out as a result of the phenomenon of adaptation. And there are many similar examples.
Sometimes disruption of the interaction between warm and cold afferents can lead to some paradoxical sensations. For example, a paradoxical feeling of cold. Remember, when you quickly get into a bath with hot water (at a temperature above +45 degrees Celsius), you often feel cold, to the point where your skin becomes “goosey.” And it's not difficult to explain. After all, cold receptors are located more superficially, so they perceive the “first blow”. Moreover, electrophysiological experiments have revealed that with such a sharp increase in temperature, an increase in impulses occurs in cold receptors, and this is a signal of cold.
As already noted, afferent impulses from thermoreceptors depend on intradermal temperature. The degree and rate of its change are determined by the direction, intensity and speed of the heat flow. These parameters, in turn, depend not only on the temperature of the objects with which we come into contact, but also on their heat capacity, thermal conductivity, and mass. We can easily verify this if we compare our sensations when we hold metal, wood and foam objects in our hands at the same room temperature. A metal object will seem cool to us, a wooden object will seem neutral, and a foam object will seem even slightly warm. In the first case, the thermal note will be directed from the skin and, therefore, will lead to a decrease in intradermal temperature; in the third case, we will encounter the opposite phenomenon, and in the second, with an intermediate one.
For the same reason, the same object (preferably metal) at a temperature of about +30 degrees Celsius will be perceived by the skin of the neck and face as cold, and by the toes as lukewarm. The fact is that, as a result of the peculiarities of thermoregulation of the human body, our skin in different places of the body has different temperatures, which naturally affects the temperature sensitivity of these areas.
A person is able to distinguish temperature differences of up to 0.2 degrees Celsius. In this case, the range of perceived intradermal temperatures is from +10 to +44.5 degrees Celsius. Please note - intradermal. At temperatures less than +10 degrees Celsius, cold blockade of temperature fibers and fibers of other sensitivity occurs. This, by the way, is the basis of one of the methods of pain relief (as it is not entirely accurately called, “freezing”). At temperatures above +44.5 degrees Celsius, the feeling of “hot” is replaced by the feeling of “pain”.
Information about the ambient temperature is used to develop a thermoregulatory response of the body. What is this thermoregulatory response? First of all, it is necessary to remember that man is a warm-blooded, or homeothermic, creature. This means that all biochemical processes in our body will proceed in the required direction and with the required intensity only in a very narrow temperature range. Thermoregulatory reactions are aimed at maintaining this range.
The heat balance of a person depends on the ratio of two opposing processes - heat production and heat transfer. Heat production, or, as it is otherwise called, chemical thermoregulation, consists of the formation of heat during various metabolic reactions in the body. Heat transfer, or physical thermoregulation, is the loss of heat from the human body as a result of heat conduction, heat radiation and evaporation.
The intensity of heat production and heat transfer is regulated depending on the ambient temperature, more precisely, on the intradermal temperature. However, the range of thermoregulatory changes in heat production is much smaller than that of heat transfer. And therefore, maintaining a constant body temperature is achieved mainly by changing the intensity of heat transfer. There are very effective devices for this, such as sweating and changes in the lumen of the subcutaneous vessels (redness and blanching of the skin). These processes are quite complex in their organization and should be the subject of a separate special discussion. But the launch of these mechanisms is achieved as a result of receiving information from the temperature-sensitive structures that we have considered.
We collected and analyzed forecasts from different weather forecasters.
Most Ukrainian weather forecasters are confident that the winter will not be very severe, with several periods of significant temperature drops. Vera Balabukh, head of the department of applied meteorology and climatology of the Ukrainian Research Hydrometeorological Institute, notes that meteorologists do not expect an abnormally cold winter for the whole of Europe.
“According to the world centers for seasonal forecasting, it is expected that our winter this year may be significantly warmer than the climate norm. We again expect a warm winter, the same as last year,” she said in a commentary to Ukrayinska Pravda.
According to Balabukh, this year the average winter temperature will be 1-2 degrees above normal and will be +2 and -3 degrees. At the same time, arctic air flows are possible, when the air temperature at night and even during the day can drop to -20 degrees and below, but these will be short-term periods. Precipitation is expected mainly in the form of rain or sleet
But foreign weather forecasters say that the coming winter will be incredibly cold and long, and it is with the onset of cold weather that the so-called new chronology of climatic conditions will begin. Warm winters with rain will remain in the past, they will be replaced by cold and snow. According to the famous European meteorologist James Madden, this winter will be the coldest in the last hundred years. Already from November, you should expect colder temperatures, and severe frosts will begin in December. The intense cold will be accompanied by heavy snowfall. The winter will not only be cold, but also very long.
"Fierce" February
The last month of winter, according to weather forecasters, will be unpredictable. Ukrainians will experience sharp temperature changes: at the end of the first week of the month it will become much warmer, but in a couple of days cold strong winds will blow. The frost will be followed by significant snowfalls, but before Ukrainians have time to get used to the drifts, a warm wind will bring a thaw.
People's Forecaster Leonid Gorban promises -15 or even -25 in February, but also with thaws. Starting from the 20th, frosts will only come at night, and then only slightly. In March, as happens in recent years, winter will return - in the first week you can expect up to -9 -14.
There is one "but"
Well-known Ukrainian weather forecasters Natalya Didenko and Anatoly Prokopenko once again call for stopping making forecasts for the whole winter at once, because they cannot be accurate.
" As soon as autumn begins, every year an article appears somewhere - by a national weather forecaster, a famous weather forecaster, an American weather forecaster, a Swedish weather forecaster, a world-famous weather forecaster, a famous meteorologist in Europe - in a word, by anyone, as long as it has a beautiful epithet, about the terrible, fierce coming winter with terrible frosts. I'm skeptical about this. Scientists, of course, are developing long-term forecasts, I really respect their efforts, but these forecasts are still extremely imperfect. The most accurate forecasts are for a day, for three days and a trend for 5-7 days. That's it, period. The rest are a very approximate method,” notes Didenko.
Anatoly Prokopenko adds: there is no reason to believe that the coming winter will be colder than previous ones. It is impossible to accurately predict the weather for more than ten days. In particular, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center does this for a period of up to ten days. Anything more changes quickly and very often does not come true.
Your own hydrometeorological center
Our ancestors made weather forecasts based on folk superstitions, which were backed not only by prejudices, but also by the experience of generations.
If there is no snow on St. Andrew's Day, then it will be warm in winter, but if there is a lot of snow, expect severe frosts.
The sky on Varvara (December 17) is starry - there will soon be a blizzard and a blizzard, when the stars are not visible - a thaw will come.
Fluffy frost on the tree means warm weather.
Thunder in winter means severe frosts, lightning means a blizzard.
A crow croaks in the morning, sitting on the top of a tree, warning of a blizzard.
On a frosty day, drops of water appear on the thickness of the ice - a thaw.
Heavy snow at night in the absence of wind - there will soon be calm sunny weather.
Weather is the combination of constantly changing meteorological elements and atmospheric phenomena observed in a certain place. If the concept of “climate” refers to the average state of the atmosphere over a period of time, then “weather” is the current state of affairs.
Weather plays an important role in human life, even influencing history. It is enough just to remember the migrations of peoples; strong winds destroyed mighty armadas. People are trying as best they can to study nature in order to be able to predict weather changes. Predictions about whether tomorrow will be warm or cold, whether it will rain or whether the sun will shine have been around for thousands of years.
But they began to be made on a scientific basis only in the nineteenth century. We criticize weather forecasters for their mistakes, but we still listen and study weather forecasts. In addition, there are a lot of well-known folk superstitions about the weather, some of which are nothing more than a myth.
If there are few stars in the sky, it will soon rain. According to this belief, many stars in the night sky indicate that the coming day will certainly be sunny. And their small number indicates impending rain. Actually this is not entirely true. The fact is that the absence of stars in the sky only means that there are clouds in the sky. Yes, this may to some extent mean future precipitation, but such a phenomenon cannot be considered an unambiguous criterion. After all, the clouds move quite quickly, and by morning they may simply not be left.
If the leaves show their lower part, it means it will rain soon. Forecasters believe that usually such a sign is correct, although in this case we are not talking about all trees. Poplar has long been considered a reliable predictor. Any increase in air humidity leads to a softening of the leaf body and its subsequent eversion.
Animals are the first to sense the approach of storms and cataclysms, dogs are especially distinguished by this. The thing is that some animals are more sensitive to changes in air pressure. A dog's sensitive hearing allows it to hear the distant rumble of thunder before its owner. Scientists believe that the sensitivity of animals allows them to react to an upcoming earthquake and tsunami a few seconds before humans. But the statement that dogs start eating grass before a storm is false. This behavior can only indicate that the dog is sick or simply a coincidence.
If seabirds begin to walk on the sand, it means the weather will soon turn bad. It is true that seabirds, sensing the approach of rain, find it best to stay close to land. After all, they sense pressure changes in the air well. But you shouldn’t focus entirely on their behavior. If you notice a group of birds gathered on the beach, then the rain has most likely already started.
Pain in the legs, arms, and back indicates impending changes in the weather. Some people believe that they can predict precipitation based on their own painful sensations in certain parts of the body. This may indeed be due to the fact that the drop in atmospheric pressure causes the blood vessels to dilate slightly. So the approaching rain or storm has such an effect on the joints, spines, muscles and sinuses. But this is just a theory, which some doctors are very skeptical about.
To find out the air temperature, you need to listen to a cricket. There is an example that you can find out the air temperature in degrees Fahrenheit by counting the number of clicks of this insect in 14 seconds. Then you need to add 14 more to the result obtained. Although the exact formulas are constantly changing, this remains the most popular. The amazing thing is that this approach actually works. After all, the metabolism of crickets is largely tied to weather conditions.
When a spider weaves its webs in the morning, it indicates good weather during the day. If an insect destroys its creation, it means it will rain soon. According to this belief, spiders anticipate the arrival of rain by escaping from prepared nets. But such a statement is rather doubtful. The point is that the spider has enough other warnings to change its behavior when predicting future weather.
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